【米国株】2024-05-06週の振り返りと今週の戦略（監視銘柄）

In the U.S. market last week, stock indices continued to rise for the third consecutive week, approaching their March highs, while long-term interest rates moved sideways.

More and more stocks with positive surprises in earnings announcements are continuing their upward momentum after the gap-up, and the market is dominated by buyers.

This week, PPI and CPI are scheduled to be released on 5/14 and 5/15, respectively. We will check for any changes in the movement of stock indices after these announcements.

Now, let's review last week's market by checking the chart.

Table of Contents

Last Week in Review
Strategy of the Week

Last Week in Review

Market environment

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note was unchanged at -0.27%. We will see which direction it goes after this week's PPI and CPI releases.

VIX has fallen sharply by -6.82% to 12.56, approaching the low of 12 set in December 2023. 12 is a level that has seen several rebound moves in the past, so we will be watching for any moves after it is reached.

NASDAQ Analysis

This is the monthly chart of the NASDAQ. At the moment, the May return is +4.34%, having regained most of its April decline.

Here is the weekly chart of the NASDAQ. It was up +1.27% last week, its third straight week of gains.

The NASDAQ high-low issue count continues its uptrend within positive territory.

Dow Analysis

This is the monthly chart of the Dow. At this point, the May return is +4.48%. Like the NASDAQ, it has regained most of its April decline.

Here is the weekly chart of the Dow. Last week was a relatively large gain of +2.01%. It was the strongest move among the stock indices.

Analysis of the S&P 500

This is a monthly chart of the S&P 500. The current May return is +3.83%.

Here is the S&P 500 weekly chart. It was up +1.61% last week. Like the other indices, it has risen for three consecutive weeks.

Russell 2000 Analysis

Here is the monthly chart of the Russell 2000, which is up +4.31% so far in May. Compared to other indices, the rebound from the April decline is weak.

Here is the Russell 2000 weekly chart. The last week was up +0.93%. It fell later in the week and has an upper whisker.

Commodity Futures Analysis

Crude oil was up a modest +0.26%. It continues its short-term downtrend.

Natural gas was up +5.14%, its third straight week of gains.

Gold rose +2.88%, rebounding from two consecutive weeks of declines to reach the 10MA, continuing its uptrend.

Copper was up +2.32%. The uptrend is holding, but with two consecutive weeks of up and down whiskers, the direction does not appear to be set in stone.

Sector Analysis

All sectors except consumer goods rose last week. Particularly large gains were seen in Utilities and Financials.

Looking at sector performance over the past month, the good performance of utilities stands out.

In terms of sector performance, utilities power, silver, computer hardware, shipping, and gold are up. Paper, coal, autos, and solar are falling. A strong move back into shipping stocks is underway.

Trend of Individual Issues

While many stocks are up, PLTR, SHOP, COIN, ABNB, DIS, TSLA, TM, and RACE are down significantly. The decline is especially large for stocks that had negative surprises in their earnings announcements.

The strongest rallies last week were seen in TSM, MU, ARM, ANET, DELL, META, COST, BKNG, and CEG.

Strategy of the Week

Equity indices have rallied for three consecutive weeks in May after an adjustment decline in April and are approaching their end-March highs; the VIX continues to fall and the environment remains good for swing trades.

Last week, stocks that had positive surprises in earnings announcements continued to rise strongly, showing strength among buyers. This week, we will continue to look for trading opportunities, focusing on stocks that rally strongly after earnings announcements.

This week, PPI and CPI will be released on 5/14 and 5/15, respectively. We will observe the reaction of long-term interest rates and stock indices after the announcements to see if there are any changes in the market environment.