While interest rates moved sideways in the U.S. market last week, all stock indices rose and the prices of commodities such as oil and gold also rose. Stock indices have been on a strong upswing for five consecutive months since November 2023.
Last week's gains in the indices were driven mainly by small- and mid-cap stocks, which continued to rise overall as the sectors and stocks that rose rotated through the market. While large-cap and semiconductor stocks, which have been rising strongly since the beginning of the year, have been somewhat weak, utilities, silver, and solar, which have been unable to rise and have underperformed, have been bought.
Looking back at past charts, it is rare for a stock index to rise for more than six consecutive months. we will trade carefully, assuming that there will be an adjustment decline in April.
This week will also be interesting to see how the market reacts after the release of the April 5 jobs report.
Now, let's review last week's market by checking the chart.
Last Week in Review
Market environment
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was unchanged at +0.10%. The gradual uptrend is maintained.
The VIX is down a small -0.38%, hovering in a low range of 12 to 14.
NASDAQ Analysis
Here is the monthly chart of the NASDAQ, which rose a modest +1.20% in March, its fifth consecutive monthly gain since November 2023. The upward momentum has somewhat waned.
Here is the weekly chart of the NASDAQ. Last week it was down a modest -0.44%; it has been up and down in March and has been moving sideways. Buyers and sellers appear to be intermingling.
The Nasdaq's high-low issue count has risen significantly and is back in an uptrend above its moving average.
Dow Analysis
Here is the monthly chart of the Dow, which rose +2.05% in March. Like the Nasdaq, this was the fifth consecutive month of gains. Compared to the NASDAQ, there is more upward momentum.
Here is the weekly chart of the Dow. It was up +0.87% last week. The previous week's highs were not broken, but the closing price was the highest on a closing basis.
Analysis of the S&P 500
Here is a monthly chart of the S&P 500, up +3.06% in March. This is the best performance when compared to the Nasdaq and Dow. The fact that the S&P 500 is rising stronger than expected while the Nasdaq has been somewhat weaker indicates that buying is spreading to stocks other than the large tech stocks.
Here is the weekly chart of the S&P 500. It was up a modest +0.33% last week.
Russell 2000 Analysis
Here is the monthly chart of the Russell 2000, which was up +2.99% in March. It was second only to the S&P 500 among equity indices in performance. It is the only stock index that has not reached a new high and continues to look relatively cheap.
Here is the weekly chart of the Russell 2000. Last week it was up +2.40%. As a weekly performer, this is the strongest move among the stock indices.
Commodity Futures Analysis
Crude oil was up +2.87%. It finished the week up strongly despite a somewhat bearish chart with a candlestick with an upper whisker from the previous week.
Natural gas was up a slightly stronger +6.27%. It is shaping up to be a small double bottom.
Gold was up +3.63%. It rose strongly despite the previous week's candlestick of upper whiskers. It rebounded to support around 2144 where it broke out and continued its uptrend.
Copper was flat at -0.01% which was flat. We will be watching this week to see if it can rise above the 3.96 level without falling below.
Sector Analysis
When reviewing sector-by-sector performance, utilities are the best performers. This is the second time since the beginning of the year that Utilities has outperformed, following the 3/4 week. Other good performers were Energy and Materials. Only Information Technology has declined significantly.
Silver and aluminum are the strongest performers by industry, followed by solar, airports, and gold. Silver outperformed at the same time as utilities, a similar trend to the 3/4 week.
A review of performance by market capitalization shows strong gains in mid- and small-cap stocks last week, with a slight decline in large-cap stocks.
Trend of Individual Issues
Large tech stocks such as MSFT, META, and NVDA fell last week, while solar (ENPH, FSLR), pharmaceuticals (MRK, BMT), logistics (FDX), renewable energy (CEG), and gold (NEM, GOLD) rose.
Strategy of the Week
The rise that began in November 2023 has lasted for five consecutive months. Looking back at past charts, it is very rare to see a continuous rise of more than 6 months, so we would like to trade with the possibility of an adjustment decline around April or May in mind.
3In the last week of March, the stocks leading the rally have switched from high-tech stocks to relatively undervalued stocks and small-cap stocks. It is difficult to predict which sectors and industries will rise next, but it appears that the market is repeatedly moving in such a way that buyers will appear when they see that the market has fallen to some extent and has become undervalued.
Since more and more mid-sized high-tech stocks have been flat for about a month, and both price movement and volume have been getting smaller, I think the possibility of some kind of rally is becoming more likely.
4With the start of a new quarter in April, the market may change a bit. This week we will observe market movements to determine where buyers are headed.
Swing Trade Monitoring Stocks
We added NCNO, REX, and RH, which rose last week after earnings announcements.
Click here to see a chart of the stocks monitored.
Among the stocks on our watch list, we are particularly interested in AXON, FROG, HUBS, NET, OKTA, and PEGA. These are stocks that have been sideways for several weeks after strong rallies. We plan to enter these stocks when they break out of their multi-week ranges to the upside.
Scheduled to close this week
This week we will focus on the financial results of PLAY, AYI, LEVI, and KRUS.
4/1
- PVH
4/2
- PLAY
- CALM
4/3
- AYI
- LEVI
4/4
- LW
- RPM
- KRUS
4/5
- GBX
Here is a chart of this week's closing issues.
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