【米国株】2024-08-05週の振り返りと今週の戦略（監視銘柄）

Last week in the U.S. market, the VIX surged to over 60 on Monday and stock indices fell sharply. Long-term interest rates then rebounded from the previous week's sharp drop, and the stock indexes saw a strong rebound in the second half of the week to finish back to the prices at the beginning of the week.

In commodity futures, crude oil and natural gas are showing signs of turning from a downtrend to an uptrend.

The VIX has fallen to 20 but remains at a slightly higher number, and the market may still be unstable this week. I would like to wait for the market to regain its composure without taking any unreasonable trades.

Now, let's review last week's market by checking the chart.

Table of Contents

Last Week in Review
Strategy of the Week

Last Week in Review

Market environment

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was up +3.95%. It has rebounded at a support line near 3.7% after a sharp decline the previous week.

The VIX once rose to above 60 and then fell, eventually falling -12.92% back to the 20s, ending the day with a very large upper whisker. It is beginning to settle down, but it was an extremely large move, and there is still a possibility of continued instability.

A review of the percentage of stocks in an uptrend in the U.S. market shows that the decline has stopped after reaching an oversold level, but the uptrend has not yet turned into an uptrend.

NASDAQ Analysis

Here is the monthly chart of the NASDAQ, which has rallied -4.85% in August. After a big drop, it has returned to the bottom and is now wearing a lower whisker.

Here is the weekly chart of the NASDAQ. It ended last week up +0.59%, rebounding strongly from a decline to the 50 EMA, halting a string of declines in three weeks.

This is the number of high-low stocks on the NASDAQ. Once it fell to below -200, it quickly recovered to -34.

Dow Analysis

Here is the monthly chart of the Dow, which has rallied -3.39% in August, falling to a support line near 38,000 and then rebounding to a lower whisker.

Here is the weekly chart of the Dow. It ended last week with a small decline of -0.30%. After a big drop in the first half of the week, it has come back and has a large lower whisker. Volume is up significantly and this is the largest volume since March 2023.

Analysis of the S&P 500

Here is a monthly chart of the S&P 500, which has rallied -3.52% in August.

This is the weekly chart of the S&P 500. It ended last week with a modest gain of +0.25%, falling to a support line near 5090 before rebounding sharply to a large lower whisker. Volume is rising sharply, indicating a mix of selling and buying.

Russell 2000 Analysis

Here is the monthly chart of the Russell 2000, which is up -7.93% in August, having given up all of its July gains.

Here is the weekly chart of the Russell 2000. It ended last week with a relatively small decline of -1.12%. As with the other indices, once the index fell significantly, it rebounded sharply and had a large lower whisker.

Commodity Futures Analysis

Crude oil was up +3.90%. a rebound is seen at the support line near 75. there is a possibility that the short-term downtrend that began in July may be coming to a halt.

Natural gas was up +8.95%, indicating that the downtrend that began in June may be coming to a halt. It appears that the last shoulder of a reverse head-and-shoulders pattern is forming.

Gold had a small gain of +0.15%. It maintained its uptrend, reaching new highs for the week's close.

Copper was down -2.68%, continuing the downtrend that began in May; the key will be to see if it rebounds at the support line near 3.96.

Sector Analysis

Energy, information technology, and financials rose last week, while materials, utilities, defensives, and general consumer goods fell. On a monthly basis, real estate, utilities, and defensives are stronger, while information technology, consumer staples, and communication services are lower.

Weekly performance by sector shows strong gains in Public Power, Public Renewable Energy, and Semiconductor Equipment. Significant declines are seen in Broadcasting, Pharmaceutical Distribution, and Pharmaceutical Retailing.

Trend of Individual Issues

The last week has been a mixed bag, with some stocks rising and others falling. The big gainers were META, TSM, ASML, PANW, LLY, NVO, CAT, and CEG. Notable large declines are seen in INTC, PFE, VRTX, UNH, and ABNB. Strong moves are seen in mid-sized software and semiconductor equipment.

Strategy of the Week

Last week began with a sharp spike in the VIX and stock indices falling across the board, but after a large drop, they rebounded strongly and finished with relatively small declines when viewed over the course of the week. However, the VIX has been moving up and down very sharply, and there is still a possibility that the market will remain somewhat unstable.

We will continue to observe the market and check earnings announcements to select stocks that have the potential to rise strongly in the next wave, without taking any unreasonable trades until the VIX continues to decline and the overall market calms down and more stocks begin their uptrend.