【米国株】2024-09-09週の振り返りと今週の戦略（監視銘柄）

Last week, the U.S. market rebounded strongly from its decline at the beginning of September, with stock indices rising across the board. Interest rates fell and commodities such as crude oil, gold, and copper also rose. Last week saw particularly strong gains in semiconductor and precious metals stocks.

Observing intraday movements last week, buyers continued to appear every time the market fell, indicating that there are many forces that are willing to buy when the market becomes undervalued. On the other hand, the market as a whole is approaching the overbought level again, so we need to be careful of temporary declines due to profit-taking selling in the short term.

This week, the FOMC is expected to meet on 9/18 to announce a rate cut. We will see how interest rates and stock indices react after the announcement.

Now, let's review last week's market by checking the chart.

Table of Contents

Last Week in Review
Strategy of the Week

Last Week in Review

Market environment

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell -1.54%, continuing the downtrend that began in April, and falling below its recent low set in August.

The VIX has fallen sharply by -25.93% to 16.57. This is a strong decline that cancels out the previous week's rise. The future direction of the market will be determined by whether it falls further this week or rebounds to the upside.

The number of stocks in an uptrend has rebounded sharply from a downtrend and is now back in an uptrend. The market is rising just short of the overbought level. It is an unsettled market that repeatedly falls and rises. This year, when the price rises to the overbought level, it tends to be in a struggle, and once the sellers gain the upper hand, the price will fall for a time.

NASDAQ Analysis

Here's the monthly chart, with September's return to plus/minus zero, and as in August, buyers continue to show up on the downside. It appears that the market still wants to continue to rise.

Weekly chart. Last week's gain of +6.21% almost recovers the previous week's big drop. Volume is also up over the last 5 weeks.

The NASDAQ high-low issue count is back in positive territory and is trending higher again.

Dow Analysis

Here is the monthly chart, which shows the September return to -0.40%, hovering near its all-time high.

Weekly chart. Last week it rose +2.78%, recovering the previous week's decline, as did the NASDAQ.

Analysis of the S&P 500

Monthly chart. Like the other indices, it has returned to near its highs.

Weekly chart. Last week was a strong gain of +4.21%, with a strong rebound and rise at the 20-week moving average. Last week, the market continued to be dominated by buyers, with buyers appearing as soon as the market fell a bit at the close during the day, and it seems that many forces are looking to buy when the market falls. However, it seems that there are also forces that want to sell when the price approaches the highs reached in July, so the key point will be whether the price can rise above 5662 this week and beyond.

Russell 2000 Analysis

Here is the monthly chart, showing a September return of -1.46%. It has not yet returned to the point of regaining the early September decline, but the development seems to be similar to other indices, where buyers appear as the market declines.

Weekly chart. Last week we were up +4.97%. We have regained about 80% of the previous week's big drop. Looking back at the price movements this year, there is a tendency for the market to rebound when it falls below the 20- or 50-week moving average, as buyers gain the upper hand.

Commodity Futures Analysis

Crude oil was up +1.65%. After a big drop to around 65 in the first half of the week, it rebounded and ended the week with a lower whisker. the downtrend that started in July finally seems to be ending. The pattern is similar to the chart around December of last year.

Natural gas was up +1.32%; it has been up for three straight weeks. A pattern is being completed in which the inverse head and shoulders have broken down a bit.

Gold was up a strong +3.41%. It has reached new highs. Beautiful uptrend chart.

Copper was up +3.99%, and is now above the downtrend line that began in May. The chart finally looks like the downtrend is about to end.

Sector Analysis

All sectors rose last week except energy, with particularly strong gains in information technology and general consumer goods and materials. Energy is the only sector that has declined during the month. As the price of oil shows signs of bottoming out, buyers may start to appear in the energy sector, which has become undervalued.

Reviewing performance by industry, silver, precious metals, and semiconductors led the gains strongly last week. A small number of sectors were down, including insurance and agricultural products.

Trend of Individual Issues

Large tech stocks were strong last week, especially semiconductors such as NVDA, TSM, and AVGO. On the other hand, oil stocks such as XOM and COP, household goods such as PG and CL, and banking stocks such as JPM, WFC, and C fell.

Strategy of the Week

Last week saw the market regain the declines of the first week of September, and the market continues to see strong buyers appear when the market falls even slightly and becomes undervalued. Last week's strong rally has brought the overall market close to overbought levels, and there may be some selling associated with profit-taking this week near the highs in the stock indices.

We will continue to look for trading opportunities by observing the price movements of the stocks we are monitoring to see whether the upward momentum will continue and rise to new highs, whether the market will hover around the highs, or whether the market will sell off and fall back.

This week, we will also be keeping a close eye on the market reaction after the FOMC Chairman's meeting on 9/18.