【米国株】2024-06-24週の振り返りと今週の戦略（監視銘柄）

The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 have been on an upward whisker for two consecutive weeks, which is somewhat bearish in the short term.

The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 have been slightly bearish in the short term, with the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 having upward whiskers for two weeks in a row.

Long-term interest rates have risen significantly while the VIX has fallen, and the stock market has been relatively quiet in contrast to the rise in interest rates.

Looking back at the month of May, the Nasdaq and S&P 500, led by the large tech stocks, rose, the second consecutive month of significant gains since May. Only the Russell 2000, a small-cap stock, has been unable to ride the rising wave.

We will see if the shift of funds from large-cap stocks to small- and mid-cap stocks seen in the second half of June is due to year-end rebalancing or if it will continue into July.

Many of the stocks on our watch have started to rise in the past week, and we will be looking for the right time to enter swing trades this week.

Now, let's review last week's market by checking the chart.

Table of Contents

Last Week in Review
Strategy of the Week

Last Week in Review

Market environment

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was up +3.36%. Still maintaining the downtrend that began at the end of April.

The VIX was down -5.61%, hovering in the low 12 to 14 range.

NASDAQ Analysis

Here is the monthly chart of the NASDAQ, which ended June with a gain of +6.49%, the second consecutive month of gains above 5%. The speed of the upturn appears to be accelerating a little too quickly.

Here is the weekly chart of the NASDAQ. Last week it was -0.08% and has been flat for two weeks in a row; for the second week in a row it has fallen from its all-time high level and has an upward whisker. In the short term, it appears that the momentum of buyers is waning and sellers are about to gain the upper hand. Since the price is far above the moving average, it would be desirable to see a pause to allow for an adjustment to continue the stable uptrend.

The NASDAQ high-low number of stocks is about to break out of its downtrend and begin to rise; the MACD is also showing signs of a trend turnaround; and the Nasdaq high-low number of stocks is about to break out of its downtrend and begin to rise. It appears that buyers are spreading out beyond the large-cap stocks.

Dow Analysis

Here is the monthly chart of the Dow, which ended June up +1.17%. Although the uptrend is not as strong as that of the NASDAQ, it continues its steady uptrend and does not appear to be overvalued.

Here is the weekly chart of the Dow. Last week it was flat at -0.00%. It has yet to recover to the highs it hit in May, and a break above 40076 would increase the likelihood of further gains.

Analysis of the S&P 500

Here is a monthly chart of the S&P 500, up +3.54% in June. Like the Nasdaq, this was the second consecutive month of strong gains.

Here is the weekly chart of the S&P 500. It has been moving sideways last week at +0.06%. Like the NASDAQ, it has had two consecutive weeks of upward whiskers, so it appears that the buyers have somewhat lost momentum and the sellers are about to gain the upper hand.

Russell 2000 Analysis

Here is the monthly chart of the Russell 2000, which ended June down -1.21%. This is the only monthly negative among the stock indices, and since June has rallied in the second half of the month with a relatively large downside whisker, buyers are beginning to gain the upper hand and we may expect a rally in July.

Here is the weekly chart of the Russell 2000. It was up +1.40% last week. Volume has also been somewhat higher. The Russell 2000 is clearly undervalued relative to other indices, and buyers appear to be gaining the upper hand as we look ahead to the second half of 2024; a strong break above the 2095 resistance line would increase the likelihood of further gains.

Commodity Futures Analysis

Crude oil prices are up for the third week in a row with a positive +1.14%. The short-term uptrend is continuing. It is likely that the price will rise to 84.16 at one point.

Natural gas was down -3.84%, a somewhat bearish chart as since May it often rises and then falls back with an upward whisker.

Gold was up a modest +0.36%, rebounding and lower whiskers as it approached 2300. It appears that there are forces buying up at some lower price. The probability of a move higher will increase if the support line at 2.282 is not broken and a clear break above the level around 2400 is achieved.

Copper was down -1.14%, rebounding at a resistance line near 4.318. The decline finally appears to be coming to a halt; a move back to 4.59 and a break above would be an upside move, while a break below 4.3185 would be a protracted adjustment.

Sector Analysis

The weekly performance was strong in energy and telecommunication services and weak in utilities and defensives.

Looking at the month of June, information technology was by far the strongest result, while materials and utilities were the weakest.

In terms of performance by market capitalization, small-cap stocks were bid up last week, while the monthly performance in June showed that very large-cap stocks were strong and small-cap stocks were weak.

Looking at performance by industry, paper products, broadcasting, automobiles, education, and integrated logistics were strong last week, while pharmaceutical retailing, footwear, and solar fell sharply.

The sectors that are about to turn up from medium-term or short-term declines on the industry charts are automobiles, banks, regional banks, hotels, software, and trucks. Of these, software (UBER, MNDY, DDOG, NOW, INTU) and regional banks (FITB, RF, FBP, CFG) are the most likely stocks to move higher with particularly strong price action.

Trend of Individual Issues

While last week was a mixed bag of stocks that rose and fell, many of the gains were seen in mid-cap software, banking, autos, and oil and gas. Particularly strong moves were seen in software (PANW, PLTR), auto (TSLA, TM), banking (MUFG, C, MFG, NU), oil and gas (BKR, CVE, LNG), and integrated logistics (FDX).

Strategy of the Week

While the Nasdaq and S&P 500 remain flat, small- and mid-cap software, oil & gas, banking, and auto stocks have been rallying under the radar. The market seems to be shifting from high-tech stocks with large market capitalization and high contribution to the index to other small- and mid-cap high-tech stocks, banks, and oil & gas stocks.

Some of the stocks on my watch list are beginning to see short-term adjustments begin to rise. This week I will be looking for opportunities to enter stocks that have had positive surprises in their most recent earnings results.

Stocks to watch

We have added mid-cap software stocks (CYBR, DDOG, MNDY), trucks (TFII), and oil and gas equipment (WFRD), which have seen strong activity over the past week.