Happy New Year!
In 2024, the overall market rose, and the stock price index performed by more than 20%, and the bull market that started in 2023 has passed two years.
Considering that the US stock market has experienced a correction (10-19% decline) or a bear market (20% or more decline) on average once every 3-4 years, it is highly likely that the market will decline this year or next year.
On the other hand, there have been several occasions when the rate has risen for eight consecutive years or more, so there is still a possibility that the rate will continue to rise.
Looking at short-term trends, the overall market has been in a state where many stocks have been in a downward trend since the second half of December, but there are finally signs that the trend is about to change.
While keeping in mind that a fall in the stock market can occur at any time, I would like to find the waves of rises that come in short spans this year as well, and do swing trading centered on stocks with good earnings results as usual.
This year, I'm thinking of trying out various ways to use generative AI to streamline trading and investment activities, and sharing them through my blog and X. Thank you for your continued support.
Now, let's review last week's market by checking the chart.
Last Week in Review
Market environment
The yield on 10-year US Treasuries has stopped rising at -0.58%. However, the upward trend is continuing.
After rising at the end of the year, the VIX fell at the beginning of the year, and ended last week at +1.25%. It has a small upper wick, and it seems likely that it will continue to trend downward this week, continuing the trend of last week.
The percentage of stocks in an uptrend has formed a small double bottom from oversold levels, and there are signs that the trend may be about to change. The downtrend ended on Friday, but it has not yet been confirmed that the trend will change to an uptrend. The possibility of a change to an uptrend this week is increasing.
NASDAQ Analysis
This is a monthly chart of the NASDAQ. After finishing December with a large upper wick, January of the new year started with a +1.34% increase.
This is a weekly chart of NASDAQ. Looking at the past week, it has fallen by -0.91%. There have been two consecutive movements where it has rebounded after falling to the 10MA and forming a lower wick, and it appears that buyers are appearing at the point where it falls, and that buyers are becoming dominant.
The number of stocks with high-low prices on NASDAQ has returned to positive territory. The MACD trend has shifted from a decline to an increase. There are signs of a recovery from short-term adjustment declines.
Dow Analysis
This is a monthly chart of the Dow. December ended with a large decline of -5.33%. January started with a small rise of +0.35%.
This is the weekly chart for the Dow. Last week it finished at -0.73%. As with the NASDAQ, we can see that buyers appear when it has fallen to a certain extent. We can see a rebound at the support line around 41880.
Analysis of the S&P 500
This is a monthly chart of the S&P 500. In December, it fell by -2.42%, and in January, it started the month up by +0.85%. If you take a step back, the fall in December was just a temporary adjustment after the sharp rise in November, and it looks like it is continuing a solid upward trend.
This is a weekly chart of the S&P 500. Last week, it ended with a small decline of -0.63%. As with other indices, there have been two consecutive periods of buying and selling as it declined. It seems that buyers will become dominant if it falls to the support line around 5811 and the 20-day moving average.
Russell 2000 Analysis
This is a monthly chart of the Russell 2000. December ended with a large decline of -8.90%, and January started with a rise of +1.57%.
This is a weekly chart of the Russell 2000. Last week, it finished up 0.83%. As with other indices, it has continued to be bought back as it falls. There is a tendency for buyers to become dominant around the 2182 support line.
Commodity Futures Analysis
Crude oil rose strongly by 5.46%. It has clearly started an upward trend after ending its downward trend.
Natural gas fell by -0.86%. After rising to 4.0, there were strong sellers and the price continued to fall. As there are strong sellers, it seems difficult for the price to continue rising at this point.
Gold rose by +0.87%. It has entered a temporary adjustment phase after a strong uptrend in 2024. It appears to be waiting for the timing of the next rise.
Copper fell by -1.18%. It is still in a downtrend, but there is a buying trend when it falls to the support line around 3.99.
Sector Analysis
Last week, energy and utilities were strong, while the rest fell. Consumer staples and defensives fell particularly sharply.
Looking at the monthly figures, materials, real estate and manufacturing have fallen significantly, while telecommunications services, consumer goods and information technology have risen.
Looking at performance by industry, last week saw strong performances in the electricity and energy sector, including public power, oil and gas, and coal, while there were falls in the automobile manufacturers and dealers, and home appliances sectors.
Trend of Individual Issues
Last week, semiconductors such as NVDA, ARM, and TSM, South American stocks such as MELI and NU, oil and gas stocks such as SHEL, COP, EOG, and LNG, and public power stocks such as CEG and VST were bought. Large tech stocks such as AAPL, TSLA, AVGO, MSFT, and NFLX fell.
Strategy of the Week
The year 2025 has begun, and there are signs that the short-term downward trend that began in December is reversing, and it seems that there is a possibility that this decline will end as a temporary adjustment.
This week, we plan to add to our swing trading positions if we can confirm a change in trend.
Swing Trade Monitoring Stocks
We have replaced three issues. We have added AS, DECK, and RDDT, which had risen after the December settlement. We will add to our position once we have confirmed that the overall market trend has turned upwards.
Click here to see a chart of the stocks monitored.
In my long-term portfolio of high-dividend stocks, I would like to buy more of PEP, JNJ, XOM, PG, LMT, and AMGN, which are trading at a discount.
今週の決算発表の予定
This week, we'll be looking at the DAL's financial results.
1/6
CMC
1/7
RPM
AIR AZZ CALM
1/8
ACI AYI MSM UNF
JEF PSMT
1/9
KBH TTAN
1/10
DAL NEOG SNX STZ WBA
WDFC
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