【米国株】2024-07-08週の振り返りと今週の戦略（監視銘柄）

Last week in the U.S. market, long-term interest rates fell sharply as the CPI came in lower than expected, and sectors such as homebuilding, real estate, and industrial equipment, which benefit from lower interest rates, and small-cap stocks rallied strongly.

This week, retail sales and housing starts will be announced on 7/16 and 7/17, respectively. Since these are important indicators for gauging economic trends, we will watch the reactions of related sectors after the announcements.

In addition, 2Q earnings announcements, which began at the end of last week, are in full swing this week, with a large number of announcements scheduled. We will carefully check the difference from consensus forecasts and guidance for each stock and select stocks with high potential for stock price appreciation.

Earnings announcements of particular interest are GS, MS, TSM, ASML, JNJ, NFLX, and AXP.

Now, let's review last week's market by checking the chart.

Table of Contents

Last Week in Review
Strategy of the Week

Last Week in Review

Market environment

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell -2.22%. Continuing the downtrend, a break below the resistance line near 4.177% could lead to further declines.

The VIX was a modest -0.16%, having been hovering in a low range of 12 to 14 for the last two and a half months since May. In the last two weeks, the VIX has been less volatile with smaller price ranges.

NASDAQ Analysis

Here is the monthly chart of the NASDAQ, which as of mid-July is up +3.10% for the month, with occasional small declines as the rally has lost some momentum since the beginning of July, but so far it has continued to rise as buyers eventually prevailed. The monthly chart shows that we have gone up too much in a short period of time, and the fact that we have had three consecutive months of upward whiskers so far gives the impression that the number of forces selling for profit and setting up short positions is gradually increasing.

Here is the weekly chart of the NASDAQ. It was down a modest -0.12% last week. Considering the relatively large upper whiskers and the strong selling pressure at Friday's close, we would like to assume a sideways or even downside scenario for the week. Since we are still in a situation of strong new highs, an upside scenario seems more likely in the medium term until we see clear signs of a decline.

The NASDAQ high-low stocks are back in positive territory and rising to near their highs at one point. The speed of the rise is a little too fast, but it indicates that a wide range of stocks in the NASDAQ are being bought.

Dow Analysis

Here is the monthly chart of the Dow, which has rallied +2.15% in July, reaching a new high. Compared to the chart of the NASDAQ, it does not appear to be rising too much, and is continuing a steady uptrend.

Here is the weekly chart of the Dow. It was up +1.72% last week, making a double-bottom like pattern since March and making new highs. The chart looks like it has a high probability of staying on the upside.

Analysis of the S&P 500

This is a monthly chart of the S&P 500, which is up +2.62% so far in July.

Here is the weekly chart of the S&P 500. It was up +0.97% last week. Unlike the Nasdaq, the index has not sold off significantly after reaching a new high and has remained high. The composition of the market is such that many other stocks are supporting the decline in large high-tech stocks.

Russell 2000 Analysis

Here is the monthly chart of the Russell 2000, which at this point in July is up +4.74%, the strongest gain of any stock index. It has exceeded its most recent March high and is on track for a high of 2324.

Here is the weekly chart of the Russell 2000. Last week was a very strong gain of +6.07%. The rise was accompanied by an increase in volume, indicating that there are strong buying forces in place; it is the first time since last December that the market has risen above 5% and the first time since February 2021 that it has risen above 6%.

Commodity Futures Analysis

Crude oil's child of -1.38% was a bumpy decline; it sold off once at the resistance line near 84.41 and is now falling. If this level is crossed, the price will likely remain on the upside, and if it falls below the line near 80.59, the price will likely remain on the downside.

Natural gas was up a modest +0.43%, as the four-week decline finally appears to be coming to a halt. The future direction of the market will be determined by whether it exceeds last week's high or breaks below last week's low.

Gold was up +0.96%. Like the Dow chart, it has formed a double bottom base. Going forward, if the recent high of 2.45 can be renewed, the likelihood of an upward trend will increase. The chart looks bullish as it maintains a solid uptrend.

Copper was down -1.27%. It fell once after a very strong rally the previous week, rebounding from a lower point with a lower whisker; a break above the resistance line near 4.695 would increase the likelihood of a move higher.

Sector Analysis

Sectors other than telecommunication services rose last week. Particularly strong gains were seen in real estate and utilities. Looking at performance over the past month, information technology is at its strongest, but real estate, consumer staples, and financials are catching up.

A review of sector performance shows that very strong gains were seen in solar, real estate development, and homebuilding. It appears that funds are flowing into industries that have become slightly undervalued due to the continued decline during the rate hike phase, and there is a shift from high-tech, semiconductors, and other industries that were consistently rising in the first half of 2024 to industries that are undervalued, especially those that are expected to benefit from the rate cut phase, giving the impression that the flow of funds is changing. This gives the impression that the trend is changing.

Reviewing the chart of historical trends by industry, the sectors that have turned from a downtrend to an uptrend in the past week are gambling, home improvement, IT services, integrated logistics, and homebuilding. Among them, IT Services and Integrated Logistics are the ones that have retested after breaking above their moving averages and starting an uptrend.

Trend of Individual Issues

Buying spread across a wide range of sectors last week. In particular, small-cap stocks such as regional banks and biotechs were up across the board. It has been six months since small-cap stocks have been bought so broadly across the board.

Aside from small-cap stocks, there have been strong gains in sectors such as real estate, REITs, and industrial equipment, which have been undervalued since the beginning of 2024 without major gains. On the other hand, last week saw weakness in large tech stocks such as MSFT, GOOG, META, AMZN, and NFLX, which have rallied significantly over the past year.

Strategy of the Week

There are a number of high-profile earnings announcements scheduled for this week, including GS, MS, ASML, JNJ, NFLX, and AXP. We will be looking for swing trade entry opportunities by focusing on stocks with positive surprises.

Stocks to watch

We have added BK, which has seen a strong move after last week's earnings, NEM, which has started an uptrend as the gold price rallied, and SMCI, which has seen a pause in volatility after a strong rally.