【米国株】2024-05-27週の振り返りと今週の戦略（監視銘柄）

The U.S. market started last week with long-term interest rates rising and stock indexes falling in the first half of the week, but rallied late Friday when the PCE was released to end the week.

Sector rotation is underway, with software stocks falling overall, while energy, utilities, and financials are rising. In addition, large-cap stocks fell while small-cap stocks picked up.

The ISM Manufacturing Index, ISM Services Index, and the employment report are scheduled to be released this week. We will pay particular attention to the movement of long-term interest rates after the release of the employment data.

Table of Contents

Last Week in Review
Strategy of the Week

Last Week in Review

Market environment

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note was up slightly at +0.78%. It fell later in the week and has an upper whisker, but the weekly uptrend remains intact.

The VIX was up +8.31%. It rose sharply in the first half of the week before falling, with a relatively large upper whisker. It rose above 14 at one point and then fell back to finish at 12.91.

NASDAQ Analysis

Here is the monthly chart of the Nasdaq, which ended May with a +6.51% gain to its final high.

Here is the weekly chart of the NASDAQ. The market fell -1.51% last week and is in the midst of a short-term adjustment after reaching new highs. a rebound is seen around the 10EMA area. If the price falls below this level, the decline is likely to continue.

Although the NASDAQ's high-low issue count remains in positive territory, it is in a downtrend in the short term. If the chart below enters negative territory and further declines continue, it is more likely that the Nasdaq will continue its adjustment decline.

Dow Analysis

Here is the monthly chart of the Dow, which rallied in the first half of the month of May, but stalled in the second half, ending the month up +2.44%.

Here is the weekly chart of the Dow. Last week it fell -0.88%. After falling sharply once, it rebounded and rallied back around 37900 late in the week and finished with a lower whisker. If the price can cross last week's high (opening price) of 39,000, the short-term adjustment may be over and the price will turn to the upside.

Analysis of the S&P 500

Here is a monthly chart of the S&P 500, which ended May at its highest level, up +5.17%.

Here is the weekly chart of the S&P 500. Last week was a modest decline of -0.37%; it rebounded strongly around 5190 and closed with a lower whisker; a break below the 5190 level could be followed by a short-term correction.

Russell 2000 Analysis

Here is the monthly chart of the Russell 2000, up +5.25% in May, which has rebounded back from the April adjustment decline, but has yet to cross the April high level of 2142. If this level can be crossed, the possibility of an upturn will increase.

Here is the weekly chart of the Russell 2000. It was up +0.25% last week. After starting last week on a decline, it rebounded around 2025 and has a large lower whisker. If we can get above last week's high near 2090, it looks likely that we will be able to move higher in the short term.

Commodity Futures Analysis

This is a monthly chart of the Russell 2000, which rose +5.25% in May, rebounding from an adjustment down in April, but has yet to exceed the April high level of 2142. If this level can be exceeded, the upside potential will increase.

Natural gas was up +2.66%. It rallied in the first half of the week but failed to cross the resistance line near 2960 and ended the week lower. if it can cross the 2960 level, it is likely to rise.

This is a monthly chart of the Russell 2000, which rose +5.25% in May, rebounding from the April adjustment down, but still not above the April high level of 2142. A move above this level would increase the likelihood of a move higher.

Copper was down a slightly larger -3.19%; after a sharp rally in April and May, it has fallen for two consecutive weeks; a decline below the 4.56 support line or the 10-week moving average would likely be followed by a short-term correction.

Sector Analysis

Energy, utilities, and real estate rose strongly last week. Weaker movers were Information Technology and Health Care. Energy, in particular, rose against the decline in oil prices, indicating that buyers are returning to the market.

By industry, paper companies rose very strongly. Other sectors that rose included solar, shoes, coal, apparel, shipping, and uranium. Weakness was seen in software-related industries, including software, gambling, medical information, and IT services.

Trend of Individual Issues

Stocks falling last week were concentrated in software (MSFT, ORCL, CRM, SAP). Those that rose were telecommunications (TMUS, VZ), discount stores (TGT), medical facilities (HCA), solar (ENPH, FSLR, NXT), oil and gas (XOM, CVX), banks (MUFG, SMFG, UBS), shoes (NKE, DECK, ONON, BIRK), apparel (GPS, ANF, BURL), and public power (NEE, GEV).

Strategy of the Week

While software-related stocks in general fell last week, many sectors such as energy, consumer products, and financials rose, resulting in a flat week for the market as a whole.

Stocks that fell last week were concentrated in software (MSFT, ORCL, CRM, SAP). Those that rose were telecommunications (TMUS, VZ), discount stores (TGT), medical facilities (HCA), solar power (ENPH, FSLR, NXT), oil and gas (XOM, CVX), banks (MUFG, SMFG, UBS), shoes (NKE, DECK, ONON, BIRK), apparel ( GPS, ANF, BURL), and electricity (NEE, GEV).

There are somewhat fewer stocks scheduled to announce earnings this week. We will be watching CRWD and IOT for earnings announcements this week.