【米国株】2024-11-18週の振り返りと今週の戦略（監視銘柄）

Last week, long-term interest rates fell in the US market, and the prices of stock indices, crude oil, natural gas, gold and other commodities also rose.

Last week, small and mid-cap stocks rose across the board, regardless of sector, and we saw a movement of rising prices spreading across the market as a whole.

The percentage of stocks in an uptrend has risen to an overbought level, and there is a high possibility that selling pressure will increase in the short term.

This week is a short one, with the Thanksgiving holiday. There's only one month left of 2024.

Now, let's review last week's market by checking the chart.

Table of Contents

Last Week in Review
Strategy of the Week

Last Week in Review

Market environment

The yield on 10-year US Treasuries fell by -0.83%. The upward trend that began in September has lost some of its upward momentum, but the upward trend has not yet broken.

The VIX fell by -5.52%. After rebounding the previous week, it rose in the first half of the week, but then fell sharply, ending with a long upper wick. It has been hovering around 15, and the market is maintaining a stable state.

The number of stocks in an uptrend rose significantly last week, and has once again exceeded 40%, entering an overbought level. I think it would be a good idea to gradually take profits from positions that have made significant gains, and to move to a more defensive lineup.

NASDAQ Analysis

This is a monthly chart of the NASDAQ. The rate of increase/decrease for November is +4.45%. With only one week left in November, it looks likely that the month will end on a positive note.

This is a weekly chart of the NASDAQ. Last week, it rebounded against the 10-week moving average, rising by 1.92% and recovering about half of the previous week's decline.

The number of stocks on the NASDAQ that have hit new highs and lows has rebounded from the previous week's decline and is back in positive territory, and is about to start rising again. It looks like the initial stages of a short-term rise.

Dow Analysis

This is a monthly chart of the Dow. The monthly rate of increase/decrease is currently +6.12%. If it ends November like this, it will be an increase of over 6%, and it will be the strongest price movement since November 2023.

This is the weekly chart for the Dow. Last week, it rose strongly by 2.08%. It rebounded after touching the 10-week moving average. It has reached a new high on a closing price basis.

Analysis of the S&P 500

This is a monthly chart of the S&P 500. The current monthly rate of change is +4.67%. A monthly increase of over 4% has not been seen since May 2024.

This is a weekly chart of the S&P 500. Last week, the index rose by 1.64%. It has recovered about 70% of the previous week's fall.

Russell 2000 Analysis

This is a monthly chart of the Russell 2000. The current monthly rate of increase is +9.93%. This is the first time since July that the monthly rate of increase has exceeded 9%. It looks like the same kind of movement that started in November 2020, when the rise began after lagging behind other stock price indices, has started again.

This is a weekly chart of the Russell 2000. Last week, it rose by 4.55%. It has almost recovered from the previous week's decline.

Commodity Futures Analysis

Crude oil has rebounded strongly, rising by +6.31%. It has broken the short-term downtrend line that began in October.

Natural gas rose strongly by +10.84%. It rose to around 3.6 at one point, but then fell and ended with a large upper wick. In the short term, there is strong selling pressure.

Gold rose strongly by +5.53%. It has completely recovered from the large drop in the previous week, indicating that there are strong buyers. It seems likely that it will continue to rise in the short term.

Copper has moved slightly, up +0.53%. It rose in the first half of the week, but then fell back and finished with a long upper wick. The short-term downtrend is still continuing.

Sector Analysis

Last week, all sectors rose. In particular, the strongest movements were seen in materials, defensives, and energy.

In the past month, finance, consumer goods, and energy have been strong, while healthcare and materials have been weak.

In terms of performance by industry, uranium, public power, computer hardware, electronics, and gold are performing strongly, while internet retail and shipping are performing weakly.

Trend of Individual Issues

Last week, the share prices of TSLA, NFLX, WMT, and COST, which are all large-cap stocks, rose significantly, while GOOG, AMZN, INTU, BABA, PDD, and TGT fell. In addition, there was a general upward trend in small- and mid-cap stocks across all sectors.

Strategy of the Week

Last week, the rise in interest rates weakened and the overall stock price index rose strongly. In particular, there was a strong movement in small and medium-sized stocks, and the rise in the stock market spread to the whole market.

Looking at the trend in the number of stocks in an uptrend, it has once again exceeded the overbought level, and it is expected that there will be selling this week to lock in profits.

I will be moving to lock in profits on the positions that have appreciated significantly over the past week, and I will be returning to a defensive position by increasing my cash reserves in preparation for short-term adjustments.