【米国株】2024-10-14週の振り返りと今週の戦略（監視銘柄）

Last week, the VIX fell sharply, stock indices rose across the board, and gold also hit a new high. There were many positive surprises in last week's earnings announcements, and many stocks such as NFLX, TRV, and ISRG rose sharply.

The Dow and S&P 500 have been rising for six consecutive weeks. If you check the number of stocks in an uptrend, you will see that the overall market is close to being overbought, and I think the market environment is one where there is a high possibility of a short-term correction.

This week, earnings announcements are scheduled for many companies, including TSLA, TMUS, NOW, and TMO.

While keeping an eye out for signs of a correction in the market, which continues to rise, I will look for trading opportunities, focusing on stocks that rise after earnings announcements.

Now, let's review last week's market by checking the chart.

Table of Contents

Last Week in Review
Strategy of the Week

Last Week in Review

Market environment

The yield on 10-year US Treasuries was -0.46%, with only small fluctuations.

The VIX has fallen sharply, down 11.88%. It has not yet broken the line of the gradual upward trend that began in July.

The number of stocks in an uptrend has fallen slightly after reaching an overbought level last week. The uptrend is continuing.

NASDAQ Analysis

This is a monthly chart. The rate of increase/decrease for October is +1.50%. It has exceeded the high for September.

This is a weekly chart. Last week, the market rose by a small amount (+0.41%). Although it was a small increase, it was the sixth consecutive week of rises.

The number of stocks with high-low prices on NASDAQ is in positive territory. Checking the MACD, there are signs that it may fall in the short term.

Dow Analysis

This is a monthly chart. The rate of increase/decrease for October was +2.39%. The highest value has been reached. If it can hold out in the second half of October, it will be a rise for six consecutive months. It feels like it has risen a little too much.

This is a weekly chart. Last week, the market rose by 1.04%. It has risen for six consecutive weeks. It looks like it has risen too much in a short period of time, so I want to be prepared in case a correction comes at any time.

Analysis of the S&P 500

This is a monthly chart. The rate of increase/decrease for October was +1.98%. If there is no major fall, as with the Dow, this will be the sixth consecutive month of rises.

This is a weekly chart. Last week, the market rose by 0.97%. This is the sixth consecutive week of rises.

Russell 2000 Analysis

This is a monthly chart. The rate of increase/decrease for October was +2.18%. It has risen to within a short distance of the high point for July.

This is a weekly chart. Last week, the price rose by +2.04%. It is approaching the resistance line at 2305. If it can clearly break through this level, the probability of it continuing to rise will increase.

Commodity Futures Analysis

Crude oil fell by a significant -8.83%. Although it has not yet broken below the rising trend line, the short-term chart is bearish.

Natural gas fell by -14.21%. It has returned to the vicinity of the line of the gradual upward trend that began in February.

Gold rose strongly by +2.01%. It has reached a new high. It continues to trend strongly upwards.

Copper fell by -2.43%. It fell to the level of 4.29 and rebounded, supported by the lower wick.

Sector Analysis

Last week, energy was the only sector to fall significantly, while other sectors were generally up. Utilities are strong. Looking at monthly performance, utilities, information technology and materials are strong.

When you check the performance by industry, pharmaceuticals retail, uranium, silver, aviation, and gold are strong, while semiconductor equipment, solar, and health insurance are weak.

Trend of Individual Issues

Last week, we saw strong rises in TSM, NFLX, BX, MS, ISRG, and TRV, which had positive surprises in their earnings announcements. The biggest falls were in semiconductor equipment (ASML, AMAT, LRCX, KLAC), Chinese stocks (BABA, PDD, JD), health insurance (UNH, ELV, CVS), and oil and gas (XOM, COP, EOG, SLB).

Strategy of the Week

While stocks that announced good earnings results are driving the rise in the Dow and S&P 500, there is a slightly weak trend in the Nasdaq, centered on semiconductor equipment.

The Dow and S&P 500 have been rising for six consecutive weeks, and I think the probability of a correction occurring due to some trigger is increasing.

This week, many companies are scheduled to announce their financial results.

While keeping an eye on the overall market adjustment, I would like to look for trading opportunities centered on stocks that are rising due to positive surprises in earnings announcements.

Stocks to watch

BX, ISRG, SYF, TRV, and UAL, which showed strong price movements after last week's earnings announcements, have been added to the list of stocks to monitor.