Last week, China announced a large-scale economic stimulus package, and as a result, the share prices of Chinese companies, companies that have expanded into China, and metal materials rose significantly. The stock price index rose for all indices except the Russell 2000, and commodities rose strongly for all commodities except crude oil. In particular, the rise in copper and natural gas was significant.
With only one day left in September, the Dow and S&P 500 are expected to rise for the fifth consecutive month. Overall, the stock market has fallen slightly from overbought levels, and in the short term, there are signs that it may start to move lower.
In August and September, the market tended to fall at the beginning of the month and then pick up in the second half. I'll be watching the market trends carefully this week to see if the same trend continues into October.
Now, let's review last week's market by checking the chart.
Last Week in Review
Market environment
The yield on 10-year US Treasuries was flat at +0.35%, with no significant change. The downward trend that began in April continues.
The VIX has risen by +4.89% and has been moving upwards since July. Last week, the VIX rose towards the end of the week, and this week we will be carefully monitoring its movements.
The number of stocks in an uptrend has fallen slightly from the state of being overbought in the short term. The short-term trend is down. Since June, the timing of the rebound from the decline has accelerated, and there is a trend of the decline becoming smaller.
NASDAQ Analysis
The number of stocks in an uptrend has fallen slightly from the state of being overbought in the short term. The short-term trend is down. Since June, the timing of the rebound from the decline has accelerated, and there is a trend of the decline becoming smaller.
This is a weekly chart. Last week, the price rose by +1.00%. It has a small upper wick, so the chart is slightly bearish.
The number of stocks with high-low prices on NASDAQ is in positive territory. Checking the MACD, it is on the downside in the short term.
Dow Analysis
This is a monthly chart. The rate of increase/decrease for September was +1.73%. It is becoming more and more likely that the continuous rise will be for 5 months. Looking back over the last 8 years, it is very rare for the market to rise for 5 months or more in a row, and the only time this has happened was in the first half of 2021. Other than that, it was often the case that the market entered a correction phase after 6 months.
This is a weekly chart. Last week, the price rose by 0.50% and reached a new high. Since July, the volume has been on an upward trend. Looking at the most recent three weeks, the volume has been on a downward trend, and it looks like the upward momentum is waning.
Analysis of the S&P 500
This is a monthly chart. The rate of increase/decrease for September was +1.52%, and it looks like it will be the fifth consecutive month of increases, just like the Dow. I'd like to keep an eye on the market trends in October to see if the monthly increase will be the sixth consecutive month.
This is a weekly chart. Last week, the price rose by +0.51%.
Russell 2000 Analysis
This is a monthly chart. The rate of increase/decrease for September was +0.31%. The key to future trends will be whether or not the level of 2288 can be exceeded from October onwards.
This is a weekly chart. Last week, the index fell by -0.48%. It is the only stock price index that fell.
Commodity Futures Analysis
Crude oil fell by -3.67%. It is continuing the downward trend that began in July. It seems that the bottom price is firm, as buyers seem to be in the majority when it falls to around 67.5.
Natural gas rose a very strong +19.23%. If it can clearly break above the 3.18 level, it seems likely that the rise will continue.
Gold has risen by +0.83% and is reaching new highs. It continues to show a strong and stable upward trend.
Copper rose +5.91%, the third consecutive week of rises.
Sector Analysis
Last week, materials and consumer staples were very strong, while energy and healthcare declined. Over the past month, consumer staples, utilities and materials have been strong, while healthcare and energy have been weak.
Looking at performance by industry sector, copper, industrial metals, coal, aluminum, resorts and casinos, and uranium were strong last week, while biotechnology, oil drilling, and REITs were weak.
Trend of Individual Issues
Last week, semiconductors (NVDA, AMD, MU, INTC), semiconductor equipment (ASML, AMAT, LRCX), Chinese stocks (BABA, PDD, JD), automobiles (TSLA), and metal materials (BHP, RIO, FCX, SCCO, AA) were strong, while pharmaceuticals (LLY, AMGN) and biotechnology (NVO, REGN) were weak.
Strategy of the Week
The VIX started to rise in the second half of last week, and the number of stocks in an uptrend has started to fall. It looks like the stocks that have been leading the rise are also losing some of their momentum.
On the other hand, the trend of an increasing number of industries switching from a downward trend to an upward trend continues.
In August and September, the market tended to be volatile at the beginning of the month. There is a good chance that the beginning of October will be the same, so I think I'll wait and see before entering a new swing trade.
Stocks to watch
We have added PRGS, which saw a strong rise after last week's earnings announcement, to our watch list.
Click here to see a chart of the stocks monitored.
Scheduled to announce financial results this week
This week, we'll be looking at the financial results of MKC, PAYX, and NKE.
9/30
CCL, CUK
TRAK
10/1
AYI, MKC, PAYX, UNFI
CALM, LW, NKE, RGP
10/2
CAG, RPM
LEVI, NG
10/3
ANGO, STZ
10/4
APOG
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