【米国株】2024-07-15週の振り返りと今週の戦略（監視銘柄）

Last week, the U.S. market continued the trend of large high-tech and semiconductor equipment stocks selling off, with funds moving into small-cap stocks, regional banks, homebuilding, and REITs. Buyers also flocked to Bitcoin-related stocks.

The VIX has exceeded 16 for the first time in three months and stock market volatility is increasing. While the adjustment decline is likely to continue for the next few weeks and months, this is a good time to look for stocks that rebound quickly from a decline or hold up without falling too far.

We will be looking for stocks that will make strong moves in the next upswing while protecting our assets.

Now, let's review last week's market by checking the chart.

Table of Contents

Last Week in Review
Strategy of the Week

Last Week in Review

Market environment

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note was up +1.29%. It is rising with a lower whisker and appears to be trying to turn from a short-term downtrend to an uptrend.

The VIX rose sharply to +32.61% and powerfully broke above the 12 to 14 range. If it remains above 16 this week, the adjustment is likely to continue for the next few weeks.

NASDAQ Analysis

This is a monthly chart of the NASDAQ. The current July return is -1.00%. It has a large upper whisker and may be in for an adjustment.

Here is the weekly chart of the NASDAQ. Last week it fell -3.98%, the first time since April that it has fallen over 3%. The decline was accompanied by an increase in volume, and caution is warranted. The moving average has not yet been broken, but the price action is bearish.

The Nasdaq's high-low issue count once rose to above 200 and then plunged, barely finishing in positive territory, indicating that the number of stocks falling is on the rise.

Dow Analysis

Here is the monthly chart of the Dow, which is up +2.84% for the month of July. After reaching a new high, it is coming back with an upward whisker. Compared to the NASDAQ, it has maintained a stable uptrend.

Here is the weekly chart of the Dow. It was up +0.68% last week. The chart has a large upper whisker and is likely to remain on the downside in the short term. In the medium term, it maintains a stable uptrend and may rise again after an adjustment.

Analysis of the S&P 500

Here is a monthly chart of the S&P 500, which barely maintained a positive rate of return in July at +0.64%.

Here is the weekly chart of the S&P 500. It was down -1.93% last week. It has fallen below the previous week's lows and appears more likely to enter an adjustment.

Russell 2000 Analysis

Here is the monthly chart of the Russell 2000, which is up +6.67% in July, aiming for a resistance line near 2324.

Here is the weekly chart of the Russell 2000. It was up +1.85% last week. It has a very large upper whisker. As with the other indices, it looks likely that the market will continue to move lower in the short term.

Commodity Futures Analysis

Crude oil was down -4.33%, ending a short term uptrend with a two week pullback from the resistance line near 84.4. The chart looks like it is likely to continue on a downward trend toward 75 for a time.

Natural gas was down -8.63%. The short-term downtrend is continuing. Selling pressure remains strong.

Gold was down -0.89%, reaching a new high above 2452 before falling back and ending the day with an upward whisker. In the short term, the sellers appear to be in control.

Copper had a big drop of -7.76%, clearly below the support line at 4.3185, continuing the downtrend that began after the highs in May.

Sector Analysis

Information technology fell sharply last week, -5.28%. Telecommunication services and general consumer goods were also down nearly 3%. Those that rose were real estate, financials, and energy. Over the past month, real estate, financials, and energy have been rising while information technology has been falling, indicating sector rotation.

Looking at performance by industry, homebuilding has risen significantly, as well as health insurance, broadcasting, and oil and gas equipment. On the other hand, semiconductor-related industries, renewable energy, and department stores have fallen sharply, suggesting that funds have moved out of industries that have been rallying strongly since the beginning of the year and into those that have underperformed in recent months.

Reviewing price trends by industry, those that turned from a downtrend to an uptrend last week were heavy equipment (CAT DE PCAR REVG), grocery stores (KR SFM), medical equipment and supplies (ISRG ALC), oil and gas equipment, and railroads (CP CSX UNP).

Trend of Individual Issues

Last week, large tech stocks continued to sell off, with buying spreading to other sectors. Particularly strong were homebuilding, regional banks, and bitcoin-related sectors. Copper, industrial metals, and public power (renewable energy) fell sharply last week.

Strategy of the Week

The VIX has risen significantly and the stock index chart is likely to enter a short-term adjustment with an upward whisker. Numerous earnings announcements are scheduled for this week, including GOOG, TSLA, V, TXN, and NOW. We will follow each stock's earnings results and guidance to see whether buyers will return to large tech stocks after earnings announcements or whether they will continue last week's trend and enter an adjustment.

This week, I will stick to short-term swing trades, targeting only stocks that have positive surprises in earnings announcements and are rising.

Stocks to watch

This week we have seen a change in the stocks being bought along with sector rotation, so we are making a larger replacement of stocks on our watch list. We are adding COIN, ERJ, GWRE, TOST, WIX, WM, and ISRG, which saw strong price action last week, and strong gains after earnings announcements.