【米国株】2024-11-11週の振り返りと今週の戦略（監視銘柄）

Last week, long-term interest rates rose in the US market, and stock price indexes fell across the board. Although the long-term upward trend in the stock market as a whole has not been broken, in the short term, selling is prevailing. There has also been a significant decline in crude oil, gold, copper and other metal materials.

There was a sharp rise in the stock price index in the early part of November in response to the results of the presidential election, so it is thought that this is a temporary fall in reaction to that. However, there is also a possibility that the fall will continue this week, so I will be looking for trading opportunities while carefully observing the movements of long-term interest rates and the performance of stocks that are attracting attention after the earnings announcement.

This week, the earnings results of hot stocks such as NVDA and WMT are scheduled to be announced.

Let's take a look back at last week's market while checking the chart.

Table of Contents

Last Week in Review
Strategy of the Week

Last Week in Review

Market environment

The yield on 10-year US Treasuries rose by +3.09%. It continues the upward trend that began in September. Whether or not it will break through the resistance line around 4.5% will be a key point in gauging future trends.

The VIX rose by +8.04%. It has rebounded slightly from the sharp decline of the previous week. Caution is needed if the rise continues from here.

The ratio of stocks in an uptrend fell sharply from over 40% to around 30%. Last week, sellers were in the ascendant. Whether or not we see a rebound in the coming weeks will give us an idea of the trend for the rest of the year.

NASDAQ Analysis

This is a monthly chart of the NASDAQ. The rate of increase/decrease for November was +2.48%. It has fallen from the sharp rise at the beginning of the month.

This is a weekly chart of the NASDAQ. Last week, it fell by -3.38%. It has fallen to a level below half of the rise at the beginning of November. It has easily fallen below the high point of July, and there is no sign of a strong buyer appearing yet.

The number of stocks on the NASDAQ that have reached their highest and lowest prices in a week has suddenly dropped into negative territory. There are still no clear signs that the decline will stop. Until this chart rebounds and returns to positive territory, we cannot be optimistic.

Dow Analysis

This is a monthly chart of the Dow. The rate of increase/decrease for November was +3.96%. When compared to the NASDAQ, it is maintaining its upward momentum.

This is the weekly chart for the Dow. Last week, it fell by -1.30%. It has fallen to about a third of the previous week's sharp rise.

Analysis of the S&P 500

This is a monthly chart of the S&P 500. The rate of increase/decrease for November was +2.98%.

This is a weekly chart of the S&P 500. Last week, it fell by -2.05%. It has now recovered to about half the level of the previous week's strong rise.

Russell 2000 Analysis

This is a monthly chart of the Russell 2000. The rate of increase in November has returned to +5.15%. It has fallen to the support line around 2285.

This is a weekly chart of the Russell 2000. Last week, it fell by -3.98%. This week, we will be carefully observing how it reacts to the support line around 2285. If it falls below this line, the possibility of it continuing to fall for a while increases.

Commodity Futures Analysis

Crude oil fell by -4.94%. It has been in a short-term downtrend since October. Looking at the longer term, it has been in a downtrend since October 2023. We will be watching to see if there is a rebound at the support line around 66.

Natural gas rose by +5.77%. Last week, it rose briefly and then fell, forming a wick. If it can clearly break through the resistance line around 3.025, the probability of it rising will increase.

Gold fell by a significant -4.63%. It dipped below the 20 EMA and briefly rebounded after touching the support line around 2570. It is not clear whether it will continue to fall, but the chart shows bearish price movement in the short term.

Copper fell by a significant -5.61%. It is continuing the short-term downward trend that began in the second half of September. Whether or not it bounces back at the support line around 3.96 will be a key point in determining future trends.

Sector Analysis

Last week, sectors other than finance and energy declined. Healthcare and materials in particular fell sharply. Over the past month, consumer goods, telecommunications services, and finance have performed strongly, while healthcare and materials have performed weakly.

In terms of performance by industry, luxury goods, entertainment, and agricultural products are strong, while biotechnology, mortgages, gold, and medical information are weak.

Trend of Individual Issues

Last week, semiconductor (TSM, AVGO), pharmaceutical (LLY, ABBV), biotechnology (VRTX, REGN), defense (LMT, GD), gold (NEM), copper (FCX, SCC O) were weak, while mid-cap software (PLTR, SQ, SHOP, MSTR), entertainment (DIS), financials (WFC, SCHW, IBKR) and luxury goods (TPR) performed strongly.

Strategy of the Week

Last week, long-term interest rates continued to rise, and in the short term, the stock market appears to be entering a downward trend. In addition, although there were cases where the market gap increased after the earnings announcement, there were also many cases where the market did not continue to rise during the day and fell back, so the market is dominated by sellers.

This week, while waiting for the short-term trend of the overall market to change, I would like to wait for opportunities to enter swing trades by checking the market reaction after the earnings announcements of NVDA, WMT, PANW, and INTU.