Last week, long-term interest rates and the VIX rose in the US market, and stock price indices other than the Nasdaq fell. Although there are also stocks that continue to rise, looking at the market as a whole, the short-term trend is for a fall.
Commodities such as crude oil, natural gas and gold are rising.
This week, earnings announcements are scheduled for a large number of stocks, including MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, AMZN, META, and LLY.
I will trade carefully with a small position, while checking the price movements after the earnings announcement.
Now, let's review last week's market by checking the chart.
Last Week in Review
Market environment
The yield on 10-year US Treasuries rose by +3.84%. This continues the upward trend that began in September.
The VIX rose by +12.76%. It has continued to rise, rebounding from the rising trend line that began in July.
The number of stocks in an uptrend peaked last week and has since entered a downtrend. Last week, the number of stocks in an uptrend fell significantly, down to 25%.
NASDAQ Analysis
This is a monthly chart. There is only one week left in October, but so far the monthly rate of increase/decrease is +1.59%, and it looks like it will be up for the third consecutive month.
This is a weekly chart. Last week, the market was flat, up 0.09%. The upward momentum is weakening, but this is the seventh consecutive week of gains.
The number of stocks with high and low prices on the NASDAQ also fell significantly
Dow Analysis
This is a monthly chart. The rate of change for October was -0.44%. It has a relatively large upper wick, indicating a bearish chart.
This is a weekly chart. Last week, the price fell by -2.77%. This is a significant fall that cancels out the rise over the past two weeks, and is a bearish or chart pattern. The trading volume during the fall is also increasing, so caution is required. The continuous rise ended after 6 weeks.
Analysis of the S&P 500
This is a monthly chart. The rate of increase/decrease for October was +0.94%, and there is still a possibility that the S&P 500 will rise for the sixth consecutive month.
This is a weekly chart. Last week, it was -1.02%. The S&P 500, like the Dow, has also ended a streak of six consecutive weeks of increases.
Russell 2000 Analysis
This is a monthly chart. The rate of change in October was -0.95%, and it looks like the three-month period from August to October will be a period of flat prices.
This is a weekly chart. Last week, the price fell by -3.06%. This was a fall that cancelled out the rise of the previous two weeks, but the trading volume did not increase, and the fall was relatively calm compared to the fall. However, if the rise in interest rates does not stop, there is a possibility that the price will fall further.
Commodity Futures Analysis
Crude oil rose by 4.13%. It has rebounded along the rising trend line that began in September.
Natural gas rose +13.37%. It has rebounded strongly after three consecutive weeks of decline.
Gold rose by +0.90%. It continues to rise steadily without collapsing.
Copper fell by a small -0.32%. There is a sign of a rebound when it touches the rising trend line.
Sector Analysis
Last week, many sectors fell. In particular, the biggest falls were in healthcare, industrials, materials and financials. On a monthly basis, energy and information technology were strong, while healthcare and materials were weak.
Looking at the weekly performance by industry, last week was strong for car manufacturers, tobacco and paper products, and weak for pharmaceutical retail, recreational vehicles, medical facilities and housing construction. In a phase where interest rates are rising, housing-related stocks tend to fall.
Trend of Individual Issues
If you check the trends for individual stocks, the ones that showed strong movement last week were LRCX, TSLA, GM, APP, PM, and GEV. SPGI, MCO (financial data), DHI, LEN (housing construction), TMO, and DHR (inspection equipment) were weak.
There is a clear difference between stocks that rise significantly after earnings announcements and those that fall significantly, and the market is somewhat volatile.
Strategy of the Week
The number of stocks that have maintained an upward trend has decreased due to last week
The long-term interest rate is maintaining a strong upward trend, and the VIX is also continuing to rise, albeit gradually.
This week, while waiting for a clear signal that the next wave of stock market rises has begun, I would like to trade carefully in stocks that have had positive surprises in their earnings announcements.
Stocks to watch
We have added BAH, CBRE, CLS DECK, GM, PM, and TSLA, which saw strong rises after last week's earnings announcements. We have also added ALKT, which provides software solutions for banks.
Click here to see a chart of the stocks monitored.
Scheduled to close this week
This week, we'll be looking at the earnings reports for MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, AMZN, META, and LLY.
10/28
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10/29
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10/30
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10/31
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