【米国株】2024-09-30週の振り返りと今週の戦略（監視銘柄）

Last week, long-term interest rates in the US rose after the release of the employment statistics. While stock price indices were moving slightly, crude oil rose strongly due to the situation in the Middle East, and oil and gas-related stocks rose.

This week, the CPI will be announced on October 10th, and on October 11th, major banks such as JPM and WFC will announce their financial results.

Let's take a look back at last week's market while checking the chart.

Table of Contents

Last Week in Review
Strategy of the Week

Last Week in Review

Market environment

The yield on 10-year US Treasuries rose strongly, by +5.73%. It has broken above the downtrend line that began in April. It is possible that the downtrend has ended.

The VIX rose strongly by 13.27%. Since July, we have seen a gradual rise in prices, with lows being broken. Until the trend changes to a decline, the market may continue to be somewhat unstable. If the rise continues above 20, it may lead to a decline in the stock price index, so caution is required.

If you check the trend in the number of stocks in an uptrend, you can see that the current trend is still on a downward trend, but there are signs of a rebound from the short-term decline.

NASDAQ Analysis

This is a monthly chart. The first week of October was flat, with no significant movement, at -0.08%. There does not appear to be a fall at the beginning of October.

This is a weekly chart. There was no significant movement last week, with a gain of +0.13%. If the level of 20345 is clearly exceeded, the probability of a further upward trend will increase.

The number of stocks with high-low prices on NASDAQ is in positive territory, and we can see a rebound from the short-term decline. When the market falls a little, buyers appear and the market continues to rise.

Dow Analysis

This is a monthly chart. Like the NASDAQ, there has been no significant movement, and it has remained flat at +0.12%.

This is a weekly chart. There was no significant movement last week, with a change of +0.14%. Although the price movement is small, the trading volume is on an increasing trend. Since November 2023, the weekly closing price has never clearly dipped below the 20 EMA (light blue), and a strong upward trend has continued.

Analysis of the S&P 500

This is a monthly chart. Like other stock price indices, it is flat at -0.09%.

This is a weekly chart. There was no significant movement last week, with a gain of +0.29%. As with the Dow, a strong uptrend continues with support from the 20 EMA. If the price can break above 5770 and reach a new high, the probability of a further uptrend will increase.

Russell 2000 Analysis

This is a monthly chart. The rate of change for October is currently -0.79%, with no significant movement. The price range has been decreasing since August, September and October, and it looks like there are fewer sellers.

This is a weekly chart. Last week, there was a small decline of -0.56%. There is a small lower wick at the end of the week. The volume of trading has been decreasing in the weeks before and after last week's decline, and if the resistance line of 2286 can be broken through, there is a high possibility that a new upturn will begin.

Commodity Futures Analysis

The price of crude oil rose by +8.49%. It has broken above the downtrend line that began in July. The trend has clearly changed, and there is a high possibility that a short-term uptrend will begin from here.

Natural gas fell by a small amount (-1.65%). It appears that the process of bottoming out is underway, forming a pattern similar to an inverse head and shoulders. If it can break above the 3.18 level, the probability of a new uptrend starting will increase.

Gold was up 0.01%, a small price movement. It continues to be in a strong uptrend. After a small upper wick, the divergence from the 50 EMA has also become somewhat large, so I think there is a possibility that it will enter a sideways or adjustment phase for a while.

Copper fell by a small 0.55%. It has returned to the level after surpassing 4.7. Whether or not it can clearly surpass and maintain this level will be a key point in determining the future direction.

Sector Analysis

Last week, energy had a very strong rise. Telecommunications services, finance, and utilities also rose. Materials, real estate, defensives, and healthcare fell. Looking at the past month, all sectors rose except healthcare and defensives.

If you check the performance by industry, last week was strong for public power, oil and gas, and energy-related industries such as uranium. There was a strong decline in textile manufacturing and solar.

Trend of Individual Issues

Last week, software (PLTR), internet content (META), Chinese internet retail (BABA, PDD, JD), oil and gas (XOM, COP, EOG, SLB), and public utility power (GEV, CEG, VST) rose, while defensive stocks such as PG, KO, and UL performed relatively weakly. NKE fell sharply after its earnings announcement.

Strategy of the Week

During the first week of October, the stock price index remained flat with no significant movements. The energy sector, which had not performed well since the beginning of the year, began to rise as the price of crude oil began to rise due to the situation in the Middle East.

The number of stocks in an uptrend is also showing signs of rebounding from a short-term decline, and there are also signs of an upturn in stocks of semiconductors and computer hardware, which have been in a three-month adjustment period.

While keeping an eye on the fact that the VIX is on an upward trend, I would like to actively enter the market if I see an opportunity