【米国株】2024-09-16週の振り返りと今週の戦略（監視銘柄）

Last week, the FOMC announced a 0.5% interest rate cut, and in response to this announcement, all stock price indices in the US rose, as did futures for commodities such as crude oil, natural gas, gold and copper.

Overall, the market has reached an overbought level in the short term, and there is a possibility that it will enter a correction phase, but looking at the weekly and monthly charts, it looks like the rise will continue in the medium term.

This week, the earnings results of MU, COST, ACN, etc. are scheduled to be announced. We will be paying particular attention to the earnings results of MU, which will have an impact on the trends of semiconductor stocks.

Now, let's review last week's market by checking the chart.

Table of Contents

Last Week in Review
Strategy of the Week

Last Week in Review

Market environment

The yield on 10-year US Treasuries rose by +2.35%. It is continuing the downward

The VIX fell by -2.47%. It has dropped to the rising trend line that began in July. We will see whether it will continue to fall by clearly breaking below this line, or whether it will rebound from here and rise.

The number of stocks in an uptrend continues to rise. At one point, it exceeded 40%. Looking back over the past year, there has been a tendency for stocks to fall within 2 to 4 weeks of reaching this level. There is a possibility that they will continue to rise, but I think that expectations are a little low.

NASDAQ Analysis

This is a monthly chart. The rate of increase/decrease for September was +1.20%. Following August, September also had a large lower wick, showing that when the price falls to a certain extent, buyers become dominant in the market.

This is a weekly chart. Last week, the price rose by 1.51%. It has formed a small double bottom pattern and is returning to its highest price.

This is a monthly chart. The rate of increase/decrease for September is +1.22%. Like the NASDAQ, it has a large lower wick for August and September.

Dow Analysis

This is a monthly chart. The rate of increase/decrease for September is +1.22%. Like the NASDAQ, it has a large lower wick for August and September.

This is a weekly chart. Last week, the price rose by 1.63% to reach a new high. It continues to trend upwards steadily.

Analysis of the S&P 500

This is a monthly chart. The September rate of change is +1.00%. As with other indices, August and September have relatively large lower tails.

This is a weekly chart. Last week, the price rose by 1.39% to reach a new high.

Russell 2000 Analysis

This is a monthly chart. The rate of increase/decrease for September was +0.80%, and we have finally returned to positive monthly growth.

This is a weekly chart. Last week, the price rose by 2.29%. After testing the July high, it ended the week slightly down. If it can break above 2300, the possibility of a continued rise will increase.

Commodity Futures Analysis

Crude oil rose by 2.87%. The possibility of the trend changing and ending the downward trend is increasing.

Natural gas prices rose +5.6%. This is the fourth consecutive week of rises.

Copper rose by +2.53%. It has clearly broken above the downtrend line that began in May. It has ended its downtrend and begun an uptrend.

Copper rose by +2.53%. It has clearly broken above the downtrend line that began in May. The downtrend has ended and an uptrend has begun.

Sector Analysis

Last week, sectors other than healthcare, real estate and defensives rose. Consumer staples and energy were particularly strong. In terms of monthly performance, utilities and real estate were at the top of the list.

By industry, there was a strong rise in public utility power, public utility renewable energy, and uranium. On the other hand, there was a large fall in pharmaceutical retail and tobacco.

Trend of Individual Issues

Last week, we saw strong rises in the following stocks: internet content (META, GOOG), banking (WFC, C), credit services (PYPL, COF), asset management (KKR, APO), oil and gas (COP, EOG, SLB), public utility power (GEV, CEG), building materials (VMC, CRH), and copper (SCCO, FCX).

On the other hand, FDX in the logistics sector and NVO in the pharmaceuticals sector, which fell after the earnings announcement, have fallen significantly.

Strategy of the Week

If you check the trend in the number of stocks in an uptrend, you can see that the overall market has reached an overbought level, and there is a possibility that it will enter a short-term adjustment period. However, looking at the charts of both the weekly and monthly stock price indices, it seems likely that the market will continue to rise in the medium term.

In addition, the number of industries that are switching from a downward trend to an upward trend is also on the rise, and there may be a continued trend of buying in industries that are undervalued, such as the energy sector, and in semiconductor-related stocks that have not recovered from the August decline.

I will gradually take profits on the swing trade positions I hold as they rise, and I will look for the timing when stocks that have not yet started to rise begin to rise, and enter them.