【米国株】2024-08-26週の振り返りと今週の戦略（監視銘柄）

Last week in the U.S. market, the high-profile NVDA earnings report was completed, and after the earnings announcement, buyers prevailed in the stock market as a whole, with stocks ending the week higher overall in the second half of the week. looking back at August, stock indices, with the exception of the Russell 2000, recovered their large early-month declines, and the Dow and S&P The Dow and S&P 500 ended August with their fourth consecutive month of gains.

Last week saw strong gains in the financial sector, with many stocks rising, especially in insurance and credit services.

Although the number of stocks in the overall market uptrend confirms that it has reached overbought levels, there are no signs of a turn to the downside at this time. We will continue to maintain our swing trade positions until the trend changes and look for opportunities to add new positions.

The August employment report is scheduled to be released this week. We will observe how the market reacts to the release of the employment statistics.

Let's review last week's market by checking the chart.

Table of Contents

Last Week in Review
Strategy of the Week

Last Week in Review

Market environment

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose +2.79%. For the last four weeks it has ranged from 3.7 to 4.0%.

The VIX fell -5.30%. It rose during the first half of the week, but fell through the second half of the week, finally closing at 15.01.

Percentage of stocks in uptrend continues to trend upward and has reached overbought levels.

A look at the percentage of stocks in an uptrend by sector shows that about half are overbought. Only utilities are in a downtrend.

NASDAQ Analysis

Here is a monthly chart of the NASDAQ, which fell sharply in August at the beginning of the month before recovering quickly, eventually returning to its end-July level by +0.53%.

Here is the weekly chart of the NASDAQ. It was down -0.79% last week. It recovered later in the week and is now in a lower whisker.

The Nasdaq high-low issue count rose after falling and remained in positive territory.

Dow Analysis

Here is the monthly chart of the Dow, which finally ended August at +1.65%. Like the Nasdaq, it ended the month with a large downside mustache; it is the fourth consecutive month of gains.

Here is the weekly chart of the Dow. It ended last week with a gain of +0.90%; after a decline at the beginning of the month of August, it has been rising strongly, maintaining an increase in volume for the third week in a row.

Analysis of the S&P 500

Here is the monthly chart of the S&P 500, which ended August with a gain of +1.97%, the best performance of any stock index. Like the Dow, it has risen for four consecutive months.

Here is the weekly chart of the S&P 500. It was up a modest +0.20% last week. It is hovering near its all-time high.

Russell 2000 Analysis

Here is the monthly chart of the Russell 2000, which ended August with a final decline of -1.83%. It has a very large downside mustache. It is the only stock index that has not made its 2022 high. One might say that this leaves a lot of room for upside.

Here is the weekly chart of the Russell 2000. Last week was a small decline of -0.23%.

Commodity Futures Analysis

Crude oil was down -1.76%. It rose sharply in the first half of the week, but fell in the second half of the week, continuing the downtrend that began in July.

Natural gas was up +5.19%; since July it has remained in a range of 1.85 to 2.32, with no clear trend emerging.

Gold was down -0.73%, the second consecutive week of sideways movement, entering a period of adjustment during the uptrend.

Copper was flat at +0.25%, returning to levels touching the trend line of the strong downtrend that began in May.

Sector Analysis

Financials, industrials, utilities, and health care rose last week. Financials performed particularly strongly. Consumer staples, information technology, and telecommunication services declined.

Good monthly performers were financials, information technology, defensives, healthcare, and real estate.

In terms of sector performance, coal, insurance, credit services, utilities renewable energy, and information services are up. Meanwhile, pharmaceutical retailing, mortgages, precious metals, trucks, and semiconductors are down.

Trend of Individual Issues

Last week, semiconductor stocks such as NVDA, MU, AMD, and AVGO are down after NVDA's earnings announcement, which had been the focus of much attention. Among semiconductors, INTC and MRVL are up significantly.

The most common stocks that are rising are banks (JPM, WFC, RY, CM), credit services (V, MA, AXP), insurance (BRK-A, PGR, ALL, MET), railroads (UNP, NSC), medical equipment (RMD, COO), defense (RTX, TDG, HEI), chemical (LIN, DD) Are.

Strategy of the Week

The number of stocks in an uptrend has reached an overbought level, but so far there are no signs of the uptrend ending and the market continues to be dominated by buyers.

I will continue to hold my current swing trade position while raising my stop order until the trend changes.

For new positions, we will look for entry opportunities, focusing on stocks that have had positive surprises in earnings announcements and are rising after the announcements.

The market as a whole has reached an overbought level, and we will be checking daily to see if a trend change is in the works.