【米国株】2024-08-19週の振り返りと今週の戦略（監視銘柄）

Last week the market saw long-term interest rates fall and stock indices rise. Particularly strong gains were seen in small-cap stocks, homebuilding, and building materials.

8月初旬の下落から急速に反発してきており、一般消費財、不動産、情報技術、公益事業のセクターは買われ過ぎの水準に到達しています。相場全体でみるとまだ買われ過ぎの水準には到達していませんが、今週はセクターによっては利確に伴う売りが出てくることも想定して心の準備をしておきたいと思います。

NVDA, CRM, and CRWD are scheduled to announce their financial results this week.

Now, let's review last week's market conditions while checking the chart.

Table of Contents

Last Week in Review
Strategy of the Week

Last Week in Review

Market environment

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell -2.14%, continuing the downtrend that began in April.

The VIX rose +7.02% to close at 15.85.

The number of stocks in an uptrend continues to rise; it has recovered quickly from its early August decline and is approaching overbought levels. There are no signs of the uptrend stopping yet.

By sector, all sectors are trending higher, with consumer staples, real estate, information technology, and utilities reaching overbought levels. These sectors may need to be prepared for the possibility of sell-offs due to profit-taking.

NASDAQ Analysis

This is a monthly chart of the NASDAQ, which has rallied +1.33% in August. It has a very large lower whisker, indicating that strong buyers are emerging at the point of decline.

Here is the weekly chart of the NASDAQ. It was up +0.94% last week. It has a small upper whisker and we are a little concerned that the upward momentum is weakening somewhat.

The NASDAQ high-low number of stocks continues its uptrend in positive territory.

Dow Analysis

Here is the monthly chart of the Dow, which is positive for the month of August at +0.75%. The chart is bullish as it is positioned for new highs with a large lower whisker.

Here is the weekly chart of the Dow. It was up +1.23% last week. On a closing basis, it has reached a new high.

Analysis of the S&P 500

This is a monthly chart of the S&P 500, which has rallied +1.77% in August. It has a large lower whisker, indicating strong buying at the point of decline.

Here is the weekly chart of the S&P 500. It was up +1.34% last week. It is back near its recent highs.

Russell 2000 Analysis

Here is the monthly chart of the Russell 2000, which has recovered from its early August decline with an August return of -1.61%. It has a large lower whisker and looks like a bullish chart.

これはラッセル2000の月間チャートです。8月の下落から回復し、8月のリターンは-1.61%でした。下ヒゲが長く、強気なチャートに見えます。

Commodity Futures Analysis

Crude oil was down a modest -0.66%. It has a large lower whisker and a strong buying trend can be seen as it drops to around 72. If something triggers it, it may start to rise from here.

Natural gas was down -4.76%, and we are seeing a test of the lows from three weeks ago. If it can rebound from the low to the low, it could turn to the upside.

Gold is flat at +0.33%. It is maintaining a nice uptrend.

Copper rose +1.39% for the second week in a row, ending a downtrend and attempting to turn the trend.

Sector Analysis

Sectors with the exception of energy experienced large gains last week. Particularly strong gains were seen in real estate and materials. Performance over the past month has also seen large gains in all but energy.

Reviewing performance by sector, strong gains were seen in homebuilding, uranium, medical information, aluminum, broadcasting, public power, and apparel retailing. The largest declines were seen in pharmaceutical retailing, department stores, coal, and oil and gas refining.

The industries that saw a trend change from declines to gains last week were agricultural materials (CF, CTVA, FMC), footwear (ONON, BIRK, DECK, SKX), medical equipment (SYK, BSX, MDT, TMDX), recreational vehicles (HOG, LCII, THO), software applications (TTD, APP , UBER, MNDY).

Trend of Individual Issues

Last week, PANW, TGT, TJX, and ROST rose strongly after earnings. Homebuilding stocks such as DHI, LEN, and TOL, as well as construction stocks such as CARR and CRH, also saw strong gains; INTU fell after earnings; semiconductor equipment such as ASML, AMAT, and LRCX; and oil and gas refining such as MPC, PSX, and VLO also showed some weakness.

Strategy of the Week

8月初旬の下落から力強く反発して相場全体の上昇が続いています。買われ過ぎの水準に到達したセクターも出てきており、今週は利確に伴う売りが出てくることを想定し、新しいエントリーは慎重に行なっていきたいと思います。

NVDA is scheduled to announce earnings on 8/28, so there may be some heavy activity around that time, especially in semiconductor-related issues.

Stocks to watch

We have added CAVA, which had strong price action after last week's earnings results, and CRDO, which has rebounded strongly from its early August decline, to our watch list.