Last week the U.S. market rebounded strongly from the overall market decline in the week of Aug. 5, starting a new uptrend, with the VIX falling to the 14s, the market has calmed down, and stock indices have returned to their pre-tumble levels, except for the Russell.
High-tech stocks were the main drivers of market gains last week, with semiconductors, computer hardware, and precious metals among the strongest performers by sector.
In commodities, gold has reached a new high and continues its steady uptrend. Copper also appears to be starting to stop moving lower.
LOW, PANW, INTU, and CAVA are scheduled to announce earnings this week. We will be looking for swing trade opportunities to enter the market.
Let's review last week's market by checking the chart.
Last Week in Review
Market environment
The 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell -1.57%, continuing the downtrend that began in April.
The VIX declined significantly, falling to 14.8. The VIX, which at one point rose to over 60, has settled down.
The number of stocks in an uptrend confirms that the downtrend has ended and the market is in an uptrend.
NASDAQ Analysis
Here is the monthly chart of the NASDAQ, which has returned to positive +0.39% for the month of August. It has a very large lower whisker.
Here is the weekly chart of the NASDAQ. Last week was a very strong gain of +5.50%. Volume continued to increase last week.
NASDAQ high–安値銘柄数は、-200以下まで下落した前週から大きく上昇してプラス圏に戻っています。
Dow Analysis
Here is a monthly chart of the Dow, which has returned to -0.47% in August.
Here is the weekly chart of the Dow. Last week it rose +3.03% and is back to its pre-crash levels. Volume is still high, as is the Nasdaq.
Analysis of the S&P 500
Here is a monthly chart of the S&P 500, which has rallied +0.42% in August, recouping the first half of August's decline.
Here is the weekly chart of the S&P 500. It was up +4.08% last week, bringing it back to the level it was at before the first half of August's decline. The increase in volume is small compared to the Nasdaq and Dow, but it is still higher than July's volume.
Russell 2000 Analysis
Here is the monthly chart of the Russell 2000, which has returned -4.99% in August. The return is weak compared to other indices.
Here is the weekly chart of the Russell 2000. It was up +3.19% last week, bringing it back to about half of its decline in the first half of August.
Commodity Futures Analysis
Crude oil was down -2.06%. It rose in the first half of the week and then fell and has a large upper whisker. The chart is somewhat bearish.
Natural gas was down -0.93%. Like crude oil, it rose in the first half of the week and then fell and had an upper whisker.
Gold is up a strong +2.60% to new highs, continuing its clean uptrend without falling below its 20 moving average since March.
Copper was up +3.77%, rebounding strongly at a support line near 3.96, indicating a possible end to the downtrend that began in May.
Sector Analysis
All sectors rose last week. Information Technology and Consumer Staples rose particularly strongly. Utilities, health care, and defensives dominated in performance during the month.
In terms of sector performance, semiconductors, computer hardware, silver, shoes, semiconductor equipment, and gold are up strongly, while coal is down.
Turning higher from short-term downtrends last week were consumer electronics (AAPL), discount stores (WMT, COST), medical information (DOCS), restaurants (SHAK, SG, CAVA, WING), and semiconductors (NVDA, AVGO, CRDO, MPWR).
Trend of Individual Issues
Particularly strong gains last week were seen in semiconductors (NVDA, AVGO ), semiconductor equipment (AMAT ), telecommunications equipment (CSCO ), Internet retailing (AMZN ), automobiles (TSLA), discount stores (WMT), financial markets (MS), agricultural machinery (DE) and gold (GOLD).
Strategy of the Week
Last week saw a strong rebound from the early August decline, with stock indices returning to pre-trend levels with the exception of the Russell; the VIX also fell to 14.8, and the market has settled back down. The number of stocks in an uptrend has been in an uptrend since last week on August 15, and the market environment is rapidly improving.
Stocks that have had positive surprises in their most recent earnings announcements have seen strong rallies, with some stocks reaching new highs.
This week, PANW, INTU, CAVA, and others will close their accounts. We will find opportunities for swing trades and enter them aggressively.
Stocks to watch
We have added APP, ASPN, CLBT, DOCS, FLUT, and MNDY to our watch list for strong price movements after earnings.
Click here to see a chart of the stocks monitored.
決算発表
This week we will focus on the financial results of LOW, PANW, INTU, and CAVA.
8/19
- EL
- ZIM
- PANW
8/20
- FUTU
- LOW
- MDT
- PAGS
- KEYS
- TOL
- ALC
8/21
- M
- TJX
- ADI
- ZM
- SNOW
- WOLF
- SNPS
- URBN
8/22
- BJ
- VIK
- EH
- TD
- WDAY
- INTU
- bill
- ROST
- CAVA
8/23
- BKE
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