【米国株】2024-07-29週の振り返りと今週の戦略（監視銘柄）

In the U.S. market last week, long-term interest rates fell sharply following the release of the jobs report, which showed a worse-than-market-expected unemployment rate, and the VIX soared, causing stock indexes to fall across the board.

The weekly increase in the VIX was comparable in magnitude to the start of the bear market in January 2022, when the Silicon Valley Bank collapse occurred in March 2023.

We expect the market to continue to move unsteadily for the next few weeks. We will not take any unreasonable trades and will use the time to look for stocks that will drive the next upswing while preserving our trading funds until the market regains its composure.

Let's review last week's market by checking the chart.

Table of Contents

Last Week in Review
Strategy of the Week

Last Week in Review

Market environment

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note has fallen sharply to -9.54%, reaching a support line near 3.77%. This is an indication that the market is beginning to fold in a rapid interest rate cut due to concerns about the principle of the economy after last week's employment report showed that the unemployment rate increased more than expected. It will be interesting to see if we can see a rebound near the support line in the near future.

The VIX was up +42.74%. At one point it was up nearly 70% to near 30. This is the first weekly rise above 30% since March 2023, when the Silicon Valley Bank collapse was reported; the first rise above 40% since January 2022, when the stock market began to fall sharply due to rapid interest rate hikes. With a very large upper mustache, it appears that the sharp rally is over for now. Until the market clearly breaks below the uptrend line, the market may continue to be unstable, so we need to watch the trend with caution.

NASDAQ Analysis

Here is the monthly chart of the NASDAQ, less than a week into August, and at this point the rate of decline is -5.41%, which is a significant rate of decline.

Here is the weekly chart of the NASDAQ. Last week it fell -3.34%, the third consecutive week of relatively large declines, reaching the 18345 support line. Volume also rose very significantly last week, and we may see a rebound this week.

The number of high-low issues on the NASDAQ has dropped all the way down to negative territory at -90. There is no sign of a rebound yet. Such a rapid and significant decline has not been seen since March 2023.

Dow Analysis

Here is the monthly chart of the Dow, which has rallied -3.10% in August. For now, the decline still looks like a push level after a rise that lasted for three weeks. If the decline accelerates further from here, caution should be exercised.

Here is the weekly chart of the Dow. Last week it was down -2.50%; a small rebound move can be seen where it touched the support line at 39300. If the market falls to the 20-week moving average (light blue) this week, we will watch for a rebound move at that level.

Analysis of the S&P 500

Here is a monthly chart of the S&P 500, which is down -3.76% in August. we will see if it can hold on at support at 5300.

Here is the weekly chart of the S&P 500. Last week it fell -2.47%, its third consecutive weekly decline, and the key is to see if we can see a rebound from here, as we did during the April adjustment. If the decline continues below this level, it could be a slightly longer adjustment decline.

Russell 2000 Analysis

Here is the monthly chart of the Russell 2000, which has rallied -6.89% in August. It has already fallen to about 70% of July's big gain.

Here is the weekly chart of the Russell 2000. Last week it was down -7.03%, the first decline over 7% since March 2023 when the Silicon Valley Bank collapse was reported.The decline stopped at the 2095 support line and a small rebound can be seen.

Commodity Futures Analysis

Crude oil is down -3.01% for the fourth week in a row, and we are seeing a rebound as buyers appear when it drops to around 73. Until a clear break above the downtrend line, we will wait and see.

Natural gas was down -1.94%, continuing the downtrend that began in May, but the decline finally appears to be moderating. It will be interesting to see if we can see a rebound from this level.

Gold was up +3.73%. The strong rally came amid declining stock markets and new highs were reached. It continues its strong uptrend.

Copper was down -0.51%, continuing its downtrend after a sharp rally in April and May. 2 weeks of buyers showing up and rebounding around 4.0. It is now possible that the decline will stop at this level.

Sector Analysis

Utilities, real estate, and defensives were up last week, while information technology, consumer goods, financials, and energy were down sharply. A similar trend can be seen over the past month. The trend continues as money is being pulled out of high-tech stocks and investment capital is flowing into defensive sectors.

Looking at performance by industry, REITs, restaurants, pharmaceutical distribution, confectionery, and public power were up last week. The largest decline was in uranium. Other big decliners were educational services, semiconductor equipment, and aluminum.

Reviewing the performance trends by industry sector, those that turned from a downtrend to an uptrend last week were confectionery (HSY, MDLZ), food distribution (SYY, USFD), and packaged food (CPB, GIS, MKC).

Trend of Individual Issues

Large tech stocks, with the exception of AAPL and META, fell sharply last week; semiconductor equipment, such as ASML and AMAT, also fell sharply; banks, such as JPM and BAC, also fell sharply; and the financial services industry, such as the financial services industry, also fell sharply. Those holding up without major declines include utilities, waste management, pharmaceuticals, telecommunications, tobacco, food, and REITs.

Strategy of the Week

This week we may see a rebound from last week's big drop, but with the VIX still stuck high at 23, we expect the stock market to continue to be volatile. until the VIX turns into a clear downtrend, take new positions in swing trades at a minimum, Until the VIX turns into a clear downtrend, I would like to minimize taking new positions in swing trades and wait until the market mood changes.

To prepare for the next upswing during this period, we will select stocks that have high sales and profit growth rates, that are holding up and resisting the overall market decline, and that are quickly turning from a downtrend to an uptrend.

Earnings announcements from many companies will continue this week. We plan to continue short-term trades on stocks with positive surprises with smaller entry sizes than usual.

Swing Trade Monitoring Stocks

We have made a major reshuffling of stocks on our watch list in response to the overall market decline last week. We are adding stocks to our watch list that are rising due to positive surprises in their most recent earnings results. We have also added FRPT and VRRM, which are scheduled to announce earnings this week, to our earnings trade targets.

The following are the stocks on our watch list that are scheduled to close.