【米国株】2024-07-22週の振り返りと今週の戦略（監視銘柄）

Last week in the U.S. market, large high-tech stocks continued to decline while stocks with good earnings, especially small-cap stocks, rallied strongly. In terms of stock indices, the Dow and Russell rose, and the VIX, which at one point rose to nearly 20, is now down to around 16.

Earnings results are scheduled this week for large cap stocks such as AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, and META. After the earnings announcements, we will see whether large tech stocks will rebound from their adjustment declines or continue to fall.

Let's review last week's market by checking the chart.

Table of Contents

Last Week in Review
Strategy of the Week

Last Week in Review

Market environment

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell -1.11%, continuing the gradual downtrend that began at the end of April. There were some rallies in the first half of the week, but it finally fell and ended with an upward whisker.

The VIX once rose to nearly 20 before falling and ending the week down -0.79%. It is still a bit early to see the rise as completely over, so we will continue to monitor it carefully throughout the week until it starts a clear downtrend.

NASDAQ Analysis

Here is the monthly chart of the NASDAQ, which is down -3.53% for July at this time.

Here is the weekly chart of the NASDAQ. Last week it fell -2.55%, its second consecutive weekly decline, with a small rebound seen just below 18888. Volume is increasing along with the decline, and if a rebound is not seen at the current level, it is possible that the price could fall to around 18345.

The Nasdaq's high-low number of stocks has remained in positive territory despite the large ups and downs. While the index is falling due to the decline in large-cap stocks, an increasing number of other stocks are rising underwater.

Dow Analysis

Here is the monthly chart of the Dow, which is likely to finish the month of July on a positive note at +3.68%. It continues its stable uptrend.

Here is the weekly chart of the Dow. It was up +0.82% last week. It had a large top mustache the week before and fell briefly in the first half of the week, but rallied in the second half of the week to finish with a small bottom mustache. It seems safe to assume that buyers are in the lead.

Analysis of the S&P 500

This is a monthly chart of the S&P 500. At this point in July, it is down -0.20%. The chart is bearish with large upward whiskers and a predominance of sellers.

Here is the weekly chart of the S&P 500. Last week it fell -0.83%, its second consecutive weekly decline. It has beards on both the top and bottom, and there is a 50-50 chance of which direction it will go after this.

Russell 2000 Analysis

Here is the monthly chart of the Russell 2000, which has rallied +10.29% in July, second only to the strong rally in December 2023.

Here is the weekly chart of the Russell 2000. It was up +3.39% last week. Volume continues to increase.

Commodity Futures Analysis

Crude oil continues its short-term downtrend with a drop of -2.77%. It appears to be falling without significant resistance with no buyers showing up at this level, and we will monitor for strong buying when it drops to the 75 area.

Natural gas was down -5.73%, continuing the downtrend that began in June. There are no signs that the decline will stop. It seems likely that the decline will continue once it reaches 1491.

Gold was down -0.75%, with a rebound in the market when it touched the 10-day moving average. It is likely to continue moving sideways for a while, looking for an opportunity to move higher.

Copper was down -2.66%. it fell to near 4.0 and rebounded to finish with a lower whisker. it looks like there are buyers waiting around 4.0.

Sector Analysis

Weekly performance by sector is strong in Utilities, Health Care, and Industrials, while Telecommunication Services and Information Technology are down significantly. Monthly performance is stronger in Real Estate and Financials and lower in Telecommunication Services and Information Technology.

Looking at last week's performance by industry, metalworking, inspection, broadcasting, medical facilities, and lumber are strong. The face of the industries appearing at the top of the list has changed from previous years. Falling were aluminum, waste management, motor vehicles, and travel services.

Looking at performance by market capitalization, small-cap stocks have been strong and large-cap stocks have been weak both weekly and monthly.

個別株の動向

Last week saw weakness in large tech stocks such as MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, META, NVDA, and TSLA, while many other stocks are rising. Last week we saw many of the smaller stocks rise, including aviation and defense stocks like GE, LMT, and RTX; testing equipment like TMO and DHR; pharmaceuticals like ABBV and BMY; tobacco like PM and BTI; and local banks and biotech.

Strategy of the Week

Last week, stocks that had positive surprises in earnings announcements rallied strongly and many of them were able to maintain high prices throughout the day, so the market environment does not appear to be bad for stocks other than large high-tech stocks. This week, we would like to increase our short-term swing trade positions in stocks that had positive earnings surprises.

This week, earnings announcements for large-cap stocks such as AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, META, CVX, XOM, and PG will continue. The content of these earnings announcements may completely change the mood of the market, so we will carefully observe the content of each stock's announcement and the market reaction after the announcement.

Stocks to watch

We have added MANH and PEGA, which had positive surprises in their earnings announcements, and ANET, SPGI, WWD, and XYL, which are scheduled to report earnings this week, to our watch list.