【米国株】2024-07-01週の振り返りと今週の戦略（監視銘柄）

Last week in the U.S. market, long-term interest rates fell, stock prices rose, especially for large-cap stocks, and prices of gold, copper and other metals, and oil rose.

While some large-cap stocks continue to drive the index higher, TSLA, which has been in a continuous decline, has rebounded strongly and rallied, and an increasing number of mid-cap software stocks have returned to near their highs. Only the Russell 2000, a small-cap stock, has been unable to ride the upward wave since the beginning of the year.

Earnings announcements from major banks will start later this week.The results of the financial results will give us a glimpse of the economy and consumption trends, so we will carefully check the contents of the announcements and the market reaction after the announcements.

Now, let's review last week's market by checking the chart.

Table of Contents

Last Week in Review
Strategy of the Week

Last Week in Review

Market environment

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell -2.68%. The trend, albeit gradual, appears to be slowly moving toward a decline.

The VIX is unchanged at +0.16%; since May it has been consistently low at 12-14.

NASDAQ Analysis

Here is the monthly chart of the NASDAQ, which has continued its upward momentum into July, rising +3.23% since the beginning of July to new highs.

Here is the weekly chart of the NASDAQ. It was up +3.23% last week. Last week we assumed that an adjustment would be made soon, but it appears that the momentum of buyers is still strong enough. We would like to continue to assume the possibility of an adjustment at some point.

The NASDAQ high-low number of stocks has stopped falling for a while, but is still in negative territory. It is clear that the current rise in the NASDAQ is skewed toward a very small number of stocks and not the market as a whole.

Dow Analysis

Here is the monthly chart of the Dow, which has started July with a small but rising +0.42%.

Here is the weekly chart of the Dow. It was up +0.42% last week. The market is slowly but steadily moving to the upside.

Analysis of the S&P 500

Here is a monthly chart of the S&P 500, which has started July with a +1.63% gain and has quickly surpassed last month's high.

Here is the weekly chart of the S&P 500. It was up +1.63% last week, its fifth straight week of gains.

Russell 2000 Analysis

Here is the monthly chart of the Russell 2000, which started July down -1.26%. It is the only stock index to start the month in the negative.

Here is the weekly chart of the Russell 2000. Last week it fell -1.26%, unable to continue the rally from the late June rebound, and if it cannot rise above 2095, it is likely to remain on the downside or sideways in the short term.

Commodity Futures Analysis

Crude oil was up +2.27%, its fourth straight week of gains. It once reached a resistance line near 84.41 resistance line near 84.41 has been reached. If this level is exceeded, there is a good chance that the rise will continue.

Natural gas had a relatively large decline of -10.84%. In the short term, we are in a downtrend. It is starting to form a reverse head-and-shoulders shape, so if it rebounds from here and exceeds 2.998, the trend could turn.

Gold is +2.48%, its strongest gain in a month, and if it can rise above the resistance line at 2452, it is likely to continue its uptrend.

Copper has rebounded from a short-term downtrend with a strong +5.93% gain. The price is strongly above the resistance line at 4.5890 and is likely to remain in an upward trend.

Sector Analysis

Last week, Information Technology and Telecommunication Services posted strong results, while Health Care and Industrials were weak.

By industry, particularly strong movements were in automobiles, coal, copper, aluminum, and silver.Metal materials are strong overall. Weak price movements were seen in shoes, solar, and pharmaceutical retailing.

Last week, it was the aluminum, gold, and copper sectors that turned from short-term declines into strong uptrends. If interest rates continue to fall, we will monitor metal materials as a trade target.

Trend of Individual Issues

Large tech stocks such as MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, META, TSM, AVGO, and TSLA led very strong gains last week. Many stocks in the financials, copper, and gold sectors also had strong gains, as did some mid-sized software stocks such as PLTR, ZS, MDB, NET, MNDY, NTNX, and SNOW.

Trending lower are shoes (NKE, DECK), residential construction (DHI, LEN), and heavy equipment (DE).

Strategy of the Week

Earnings announcements from major banks will start later this week. We will check how the market reacts after each company's earnings announcement and go with the market trend. We will continue to look for opportunities for swing trade entries as we did last week.

Although we have not added these stocks to our watch list, we will also monitor trends in metal materials-related stocks.

Stocks to watch

There are no major replacements in the stocks on our watch list. We are adding PLTR, a software-related stock with increasing potential to reach new highs.