【米国株】2024-06-17週の振り返りと今週の戦略（監視銘柄）

Last week in the U.S. market, the Dow, which had been in decline in June, was bought and rallied while semiconductor stocks stopped rising and were about to make a brief adjustment.

6月に入ってから短期的な下落トレンドの銘柄が増加する傾向となっていましたが、やや売られ過ぎの水準に近づいており、ソフトウェアアプリケーション（ADBE、CRM, ,INTU、NOW）、ITサービス（ACN, ,CDW）、ホームセンター（HD, ,LOW）等の過去1ヶ月間にアンダーパフォームしていた業種に反発する動きが見られます。

There are signs that the price of oil is about to turn from falling to rising, and oil stocks are beginning to be bought.

Long-term interest rates are on the downside, the VIX is at a low level, and stocks that have been falling in the shadow of rising stock indices will have an opportunity to start rising and trade in some way.

Now, let's review last week's market by checking the chart.

Table of Contents

Last Week in Review
1. Market environment
NASDAQ Analysis
Strategy of the Week

Last Week in Review

Market environment

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was flat with a modest move of +0.81%; a move below the 4.177% level would likely lead to further declines.

The VIX was up +4.27%, hovering in the 12 to 14 range.

NASDAQ Analysis

Here is a monthly chart of the Nasdaq, which has rallied +6.57% in June, following a big gain in May.

Here is the weekly chart of the NASDAQ. It was up +0.31% last week. It rose sharply once and then fell, with a large upper whisker. The chart pattern is likely to be a decline or sideways movement in the short term.

The NASDAQ high-low number of stocks continues its downtrend. There are no clear signs of a trend reversal yet.

Dow Analysis

Here is a monthly chart of the Dow, showing a modest gain of +1.17% in June.

Here is the weekly chart of the Dow. Last week we saw a slightly stronger gain of +1.65%; if we can get above the 39300 level, we are likely to move higher.

Analysis of the S&P 500

Here is the monthly chart of the S&P 500, which is up +3.48% in June, and is more likely to finish in the positive following May.

これはS&P500の月足チャートで、6月は+3.48%上昇しており、5月に続きプラスで終わる可能性が高い。

Russell 2000 Analysis

Here is the monthly chart of the Russell 2000, which is likely to finish the month of June with a return of -2.57%, the only negative monthly return among the stock indices.

Here is the weekly chart of the Russell 2000. A small gain of +0.92% last week shows the short-term downtrend stopping.

Commodity Futures Analysis

Crude oil was up +2.66%, the second straight week of gains, putting it in a short-term uptrend. As the price of crude oil rises, we may see buying in oil-related stocks as well.

Natural gas was down -6.11%, its second straight week of decline. If the decline continues this week, the short-term uptrend that began in April will likely end.

Gold was down -0.76%. It has been moving up and down in a small range for the past 4 weeks. It appears to be preparing for the next up move.

Copper was down -1.18%. It has beards on the top and bottom, indicating a possible trend reversal chart pattern.

Sector Analysis

Telecommunication services and financials rose strongly last week, while utilities fell sharply.

A look at performance by industry shows strong gains in gambling and IT services. Metal materials, including gold, copper, and aluminum, are also up. A particularly large decline last week was in solar.

Reviewing the industry charts, it is Entertainment (NFLX), Home Improvement (HD, LOW), Software Applications (ADBE, CRM, INTU, NOW), and IT Services (ACN, CDW) that are about to turn up from their short-term downtrends ahead of the other industries.

Trend of Individual Issues

Software (ADBE, CRM, INTU, NOW), IT services (ACN, IT), and regional banks (HDB, IBN, NU) rallied strongly last week; AAPL, NVDA, and META, which had rallied strongly in June, are now down; and the US and European markets, which had been up strongly in June, are down.

Strategy of the Week

While large high-tech stocks are leading the rally and driving the indices higher, many other stocks are continuing their short-term downtrend. Several industries, including software applications, IT services, home improvement, and entertainment, have seen a trend shift from declines to rallies. There has also been strong buying activity in stocks that had been falling, particularly in the Dow.

In the short term, the market is approaching oversold levels, and I believe that there is a possibility that something could trigger another move higher for other large issues.

Stocks to watch

ADBE, HUBS, INTU, NOW, and NU are added from among the software application stocks that are showing short-term trend shifts, and from among the regional bank stocks.