【米国株】2024-06-03週の振り返りと今週の戦略（監視銘柄）

In the U.S. market last week, semiconductors and health care led the NASDAQ and S&P 500 higher to new highs, while energy and small- and mid-cap stocks declined. The market as a whole continued to rise, although the sectors that rallied week after week were switched.

Commodity futures are showing a bit of weakness in economy-sensitive sectors, with crude oil, gold, copper and other metal materials falling.

This week, along with the CPI and PPI releases, the FOMC chairman's press conference is scheduled for June 12. We would like to confirm the trend of inflation and the outlook for interest rate cuts and observe how the market reacts.

Now, let's review last week's market by checking the chart.

Table of Contents

Last Week in Review
Strategy of the Week

Last Week in Review

Market environment

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note was down -1.49%. The chart has a large drop once and then rises and has a lower whisker, indicating that the chart is likely to rise in the short term. The probability of a move higher is likely to increase if the price exceeds the 4.5% level of last week's high.

The VIX was down -5.42%, the third consecutive week of candles with an upper whisker. After the first half of the week was dominated by sellers of equities, the market has been picking up with an increase in buyers, and the sellers and buyers have been mixing and mingling with each other with the buyers slightly ahead.

NASDAQ Analysis

Here is the monthly chart of the NASDAQ, which is up +2.56% after one week in June.

Here is the weekly chart of the NASDAQ. Last week it reached a new high with a gain of +2.56%. The strong uptrend continues.

The NASDAQ high-low number of stocks continues its gradual decline and is now in negative territory. While the NASDAQ index is rising, this number is falling, indicating that the number of stocks falling is increasing when looking at the NASDAQ as a whole, but some stocks with large market capitalization are leading the rise. It seems that we need to watch the transition with some caution.

Dow Analysis

This is the monthly chart of the Dow. At the moment, the June rate of return is unchanged at +0.20%.

Here is the weekly chart of the Dow. Last week it was +0.20% with a small crosshair. The chart is expected to rise in the short term as it is moving up to the lower lows with a lower whisker.

Analysis of the S&P 500

Here is a monthly chart of the S&P 500, which is up +1.11% so far in June.

Here is the weekly chart of the S&P 500. It rose +1.11% last week to new highs. Like the NASDAQ, it continues its strong uptrend.

Russell 2000 Analysis

Here is the monthly chart of the Russell 2000, which started June down -2.26%. It is the only stock index that has declined.

Here is the weekly chart of the Russell 2000. Last week it was down -2.26%; if it goes down below the 2024 level, the chart is bearish with a high probability of a short term decline.

Commodity Futures Analysis

Crude oil was down -2.29%. After a large drop in the first half of the week, it has recovered and is now in a lower whisker, continuing the downtrend that began in April but is being lifted by strong buyers around 73.

Natural gas was up a strong +12.79%. If the bottoming out is underway and can be maintained above 2.967, it looks likely to rise.

Gold was down -0.89%. The chart is likely to decline in the short term if the price falls below the 2.28 level.

Copper was down -2.57%, the third consecutive week of relatively large declines. Copper is likely to decline in the short term if the price falls below the 2.28 level.

Sector Analysis

Last week, Information Technology, Health Care, and Communication Services led the gains, while Energy, Utilities, and Materials fell sharply. Sectors rising and falling week to week swapped places.

Reviewing performance by industry sector, the past week saw strong gains in semiconductors and semiconductor equipment. The largest declines were seen in paper companies, utilities, airports, metal materials, and oil mining.

Trend of Individual Issues

Overall, last week saw the top half of the market move up and the bottom half move down. Strong gainers were software (ORCL, CRWD, NOW, UBER), semiconductors (NVDA, TSM, AVGO, ARM), semiconductor equipment (ASML, AMAT), Internet content (META, PINS), Internet retail (AMZN), pharmaceuticals (ABBV, LLY and MRK), and biotechnology (NVO and VRTX). Significantly lower were discount stores (TGT, DG), oil (XOM, CVX, BP), copper (SCCO, FCX), residential construction (LEN, DHI), and utilities (NEE, GEV). Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

Strategy of the Week

Last week, the U.S. market was dominated by large-cap stocks, with semiconductors and health care leading the index higher, but there are many small and mid-cap stocks that are falling underwater. Looking at the overall market, we are not completely bullish, but it seems to be a good idea to take advantage of rising stocks in relatively strong industries to make short-term trades.