【米国株】2024-05-20週の振り返りと今週の戦略（監視銘柄）

Last week in the U.S. market, semiconductor-related stocks led the gains, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rising among stock indices, while the Dow and Russell ended the week lower.

Long-term interest rates have risen slightly and futures prices for crude oil, gold, and copper have fallen somewhat larger.

After three consecutive weeks of gains in stock indices since the beginning of May, sectors other than semiconductors, solar, and public power have stopped rising and are in the process of making short-term adjustments.

CRM, COST, NTNX, and other financial results are scheduled to be released this week, and PCE is scheduled to be released on May 31.

Now, let's review last week's market by checking the chart.

Table of Contents

Last Week in Review
Strategy of the Week

Last Week in Review

Market environment

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was up +1.02%, with support near 4.37% and the decline seemingly halted for now.

The VIX was down a modest -0.50%. It remained below 12 following the previous week.

NASDAQ Analysis

Here is the monthly chart of the Nasdaq, which has risen +8.14% in May, the strongest gain since November 2023.

Here is the weekly chart of the NASDAQ. It was up +1.38% last week, its fifth straight week of gains.

The NASDAQ high-low issue count is in a downtrend in the short term, but barely finished in positive territory.

Dow Analysis

This is the monthly chart of the Dow. At the moment, the rate of return for May is +3.35%. It is falling and has an upper whisker when it reaches near its highest level.

Here is the weekly chart of the Dow. Last week it fell -2.33%. The decline wraps up the previous week's leg and is a double top pattern, which is a bearish signal in the short term.

Analysis of the S&P 500

Here is a monthly chart of the S&P 500, with a May gain of +5.56%, not much change from last week.

Here is the weekly chart of the S&P 500. Last week it was flat at -0.01%. The chart is still in an uptrend, but looks like it may be in for a correction.

Russell 2000 Analysis

Here is a monthly chart of the Russell 2000, showing a May return of +4.99%.

Here is the weekly chart of the Russell 2000. It fell -1.23% last week. It has a rather large lower whisker and looks likely to rise after this.

Commodity Futures Analysis

Crude oil was down -2.15% for the third week in a row. The chart looks like it could turn higher if selling pressure is removed. The chart looks like it could turn higher once selling pressure is removed.

Natural gas was down -4.04%; it looks like we are about to see a pause in the adjustment after four straight weeks of gains.

Gold was down a relatively large -3.43%. It has failed to make new highs and is bouncing back. The uptrend has not been broken, but the chart is somewhat bearish because of the double top-like shape.

Copper had a big drop of -5.87%. This was a large drop that offset most of the previous week's gains.

Sector Analysis

Only Information Technology rose strongly last week, while the rest of the sectors fell. The largest declines were in real estate and energy.

A look at performance by industry shows very strong buying in solar.Solar and renewable energy-related stocks have seen increased volume over the past week, and their share prices have begun to rise strongly. Other sectors that have rallied are semiconductors, electronics, and utilities. The industries with the largest declines were pharmaceutical retailing, broadcasting, and silver.

Trend of Individual Issues

Semiconductors (NVDA, TSM, QCOM, ADI), semiconductor equipment (ASML, AMAT, LRCX), and computers (DELL) rose last week on the back of NVDA's strong earnings. Other strong gains were seen in solar (ENPH, FSLR, NXT), engineering (PWR, FIX, DY), electronic components (VRT, HUBB, NVT, POWL), and public power (CEG, GEV, VST).

On the other hand, home improvement (HD, LOW), copper (SCCO, FCX), and integrated logistics (UPS) have fallen sharply.

Strategy of the Week

Stocks such as semiconductors, data centers, and power rallied last week after NVDA reported much better-than-expected earnings, but we need to be a bit cautious this week as long-term interest rates have stopped falling and we are seeing weak price action, especially in Dow stocks.

This week is the last week of May and we may see some profit taking in stocks that rose significantly in May. We will carefully select our trade targets and trade with caution.