【米国株】2024-04-22週の振り返りと今週の戦略（監視銘柄）

Last week, the U.S. market saw a strong rebound as the upward momentum in long-term interest rates weakened, halting the three-week decline that began in April. The VIX, which had continued to rise, fell sharply, ending its uptrend. In commodity futures, crude oil, natural gas, and copper continued to rise. Gold maintained its uptrend after falling briefly last week.

Whether last week's strong rebound will end the April adjustment phase or whether the adjustment will continue into May and beyond will be the key to this week's market trends. Earnings announcements are scheduled this week for notable stocks such as AAPL, AMZN, AMD, SMCI, and COIN. We will closely monitor the market reaction after the earnings announcements.

Now, let's review last week's market by checking the chart.

Table of Contents

Last Week in Review
Strategy of the Week

Last Week in Review

Market environment

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose +0.95%, maintaining the uptrend that began in April, but with less upward momentum.

The VIX fell sharply by -19.68%, falling below the support line of the uptrend that began in April.

NASDAQ Analysis

Here is the monthly chart of the NASDAQ, which has rallied -2.95% in April, with two days remaining in April and a very good chance of ending the month on a down note. Looking back at past charts, adjustments in the middle of an uptrend can last for two months or more, so we will see if the market can rise in May.

Here is the weekly chart of the NASDAQ. Last week was a strong gain of +3.95%. However, it has yet to rise to the point of regaining the previous week's decline. This week's move will be the key to see if it was a temporary rebound from the strong decline or a short-term adjustment that will allow the market to return to the uptrend.

The NASDAQ high-low issue count has rebounded sharply from negative territory. It has not yet returned to positive territory.

Dow Analysis

Here is the monthly chart of the Dow, which has rallied -3.78% in April. Like the NASDAQ, April is likely to end with a decline.

Here is the weekly chart of the Dow. Last week was a small gain of +0.75%.

Analysis of the S&P 500

This is a monthly chart of the S&P 500. The current rate of return for April is -2.80%.

Here is the weekly chart of the S&P 500. Last week was a strong gain of +2.70%. It has returned to 80% of the previous week's decline.

Russell 2000 Analysis

Here is a monthly chart of the Russell 2000, showing a big drop of -5.51% in April.

Here is the weekly chart of the Russell 2000. It rebounded from a three-week decline with a strong +2.76% gain last week.

Commodity Futures Analysis

Crude oil was up +1.92%. It has returned to the uptrend channel range and is continuing its upward trot back to its original pace.

Natural gas was up +9.76%. It maintains a moderate uptrend.

Gold was down -2.76%. It fell sharply in the first half of the week, but rallied in the second half of the week to end the week with a lower whisker.

Copper was up +1.48%, its fourth straight week of gains. After falling in the first half of the week, it came back strongly and finished with a lower whisker.

Sector Analysis

All sectors rose last week. Particularly strong gains were in information technology and communication services, which had been in decline. Consumer staples also had strong gains.

Looking at monthly performance, telecommunication services and energy are up, while real estate, health care, and information technology are down, with sizeable adjustments.

By industry, airport services, semiconductors, electronics, computer hardware, semiconductor equipment, and shipping are up. Trucking, lumber, and steel are falling sharply. Economy-sensitive industries are beginning to decline.

Trend of Individual Issues

Among the larger market capitalization stocks, NVDA, AVGO, GOOG, and TSLA rose strongly last week, while META, INTC, IBM, and ABBV fell after earnings announcements. In addition, SAIA and ODFL fell sharply after earnings announcements, and truck stocks were down across the board; insurance stocks such as PGR and MMC, and steel stocks such as NUE and CLF also fell while the overall market rallied, indicating relative weakness.

Strategy of the Week

Last week saw a strong rebound from three consecutive weeks of declines and the overall market rallied. With long-term interest rates losing momentum and the VIX falling rapidly, there is a possibility that the adjustment phase that began in early April has ended and the market will return to the upside. However, looking back at past charts, adjustment phases during rising markets can last for two months or longer, and we need to carefully check whether the rally will continue this week.

Looking at the market reaction after earnings announcements, it appears that buyer momentum is returning as more and more stocks are able to maintain their upward momentum after announcing favorable earnings and gapping up.

If the market continues to rise this week, I would like to gradually increase my swing trade position.

Many stocks are scheduled to announce earnings this week. In particular, we will pay attention to the price movements of LLY, AMZN, AMD, SMCI, COIN, and EXPE after their earnings announcements.

Swing Trade Monitoring Stocks

We have added CARR, EQT, RMD, and WFRD to our watch list after they showed strong movement following last week's earnings announcements. Many of the stocks on our watch list are scheduled to announce earnings this week. We will closely monitor price movements after earnings announcements.