【米国株】2024-04-15週の振り返りと今週の戦略（監視銘柄）

Last week in the U.S. market, long-term interest rates and the VIX rose, and stock indices continued to adjust and decline. In particular, semiconductor-related stocks, which had been rising strongly since the beginning of the year, collapsed sharply, and the NASDAQ fell more than 5% for the first time since last October.

Since the beginning of April, stock prices have fallen for three consecutive weeks and are now in a short-term oversold condition to levels comparable to last October.

While stock indices continue to fall, metal materials such as gold and copper continue to be bought and rise. This one appears to have reached a slightly overbought level.

This week, TSLA, META, MSFT, and GOOG will announce their earnings results. We will be watching to see if we can see a move after the earnings announcements that reverses the bearish trend in the overall market, or if the market atmosphere will deteriorate further after the earnings announcements and the decline will continue.

Now, let's review last week's market by checking the chart.

Table of Contents

Last Week in Review
Strategy of the Week

Last Week in Review

Market environment

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose +2.14%, the third straight week of strong gains. There is no sign of a trend reversal yet.

The VIX was up +8.09%. It has a large upper whisker but is still in an uptrend.

NASDAQ Analysis

Here is the monthly chart of the NASDAQ, which has rallied -6.64% in April, a strong decline that cancels out the gains seen in February and March.

Here is the weekly chart of the NASDAQ. Last week was a strong decline of -5.38%. This is the first time since October 2022 that it has fallen more than 5% in one week.

The NASDAQ high-low issue count continues its downtrend in negative territory. A small rebound is seen late last week. Buyers are showing up at the point where the market has fallen to a level equivalent to around October of last year. It appears increasingly likely that the trend will bottom out and turn upward in the coming weeks and months.

Dow Analysis

Here is the monthly chart of the Dow, which has rallied -4.50% in April, rebounding from a drop to near its high at the end of 2022.

Here is the weekly chart of the Dow. Last week it was flat with a gain of +0.03%. Last week it fell sharply once to reach the price at the beginning of the year, then rebounded strongly and had a large lower whisker.

Analysis of the S&P 500

Here is a monthly chart of the S&P 500, which is down -5.35% for the month of April.

Here is the weekly chart of the S&P 500. Last week was a sizeable decline of -3.06%, the third consecutive week of declines and accelerating declines. Looking back at the charts of the past few years, there is a tendency for the market to rebound the week after three consecutive weeks of declines.

Russell 2000 Analysis

Here is the monthly chart of the Russell 2000, which has expanded to -8.05% for the month of April. This is the first time since September 2022, during the bear market, that the monthly decline has exceeded 8%.

Here is the weekly chart of the Russell 2000. Last week it was down -2.73%, the third consecutive week of big declines that brought it back to its price at the beginning of the year.

Commodity Futures Analysis

Crude oil was down -3.91%, once accelerating higher two weeks ago, but is now back in the range of the uptrend channel that began at the end of 2023.

Natural gas was down a modest -1.02%; it has stalled at a small range since February.

Gold was up +1.67%. The strong move offset a somewhat weak chart with an upward whisker in the previous week.

Copper was up a very strong +5.61%. This is a strong uptrend, but the rise appears to be too accelerated.

Sector Analysis

Utilities, defensives, and financials rose last week, while information technology and consumer staples fell sharply. This is a typical move seen during an adjustment phase.

A review of performance by industry shows that strong gains were seen in health insurance, airlines, tobacco, agricultural products, and packaged foods, with investment capital flowing into defensive-oriented industries. The largest declines were seen in semiconductors, semiconductor equipment, REITs, and automobiles.

Trend of Individual Issues

Last week, the decline was centered on high-tech stocks from large to small. Particularly notable declines were in semiconductor-related stocks such as NVDA, TSM, AVGO, ASML, and AMAT. Other stocks with large market capitalizations, such as MSFT, AAPL, META, AMZN, and TSLA, also declined.

Strong gains have been seen in WFC, AXP, MS, GS, UNH, ELV, UAL, and ALK, which have announced good earnings results in the past few weeks.

Strategy of the Week

Semiconductor stocks, which had been strong since the beginning of the year, have also begun to decline, as if the last stronghold has fallen. In the past few weeks of adjustment, stocks that have had large gains since the beginning of the year have tended to sell off in particular. The index is now oversold to the same level it was at around October 2023, and some forces are beginning to buy stocks they see as undervalued. However, we do not believe that the adjustment phase will end early in April, and we would like to assume that the period of adjustment or sideways movement may continue into May.

This week will be full of earnings announcements for TSLA, META, MSFT, GOOG, and other large-cap stocks. The reaction of the market after earnings announcements will give us some idea of the direction of the overall stock market going forward. If many stocks fall in price despite good or not-so-good earnings results, it is a bearish signal, and if many stocks rise in price despite only a few positive factors, it is a bullish signal.

Since the VIX is still in an uptrend this week, we will check the market reaction after the earnings announcements of notable stocks and wait carefully for the VIX to turn into a downtrend and change the mood of the market.

Until then, I would like to reduce the number of trades and the size of my trades and limit them to only short-term swing trades (within a week) on stocks that are expected to rise in the short term after earnings announcements. The market is not suitable for my swing trading approach right now, so it is time to be patient.

Swing Trade Monitoring Stocks

This week we have a relatively large turnover of stocks on our watch list. We are adding AXP, BK, BMI, ELV, OZK, and TXRH, which have performed well after earnings announcements and are holding up through the adjustment phase.

This week, we will closely monitor the post-earnings announcements of the stocks we are monitoring.