【米国株】2024-04-08週の振り返りと今週の戦略（監視銘柄）

Last week in the U.S. market, long-term interest rates and the VIX continued to rise, while equity indices fell for the second week in a row. The Dow and Russell were particularly strong decliners.

Metal materials such as gold, silver, and copper have continued to rise, but the trend appears to be starting to change a bit, as the rally stopped in the second half of last week and the market began to fall back and put on an upward whisker. In addition, while the overall market has been falling, buyers have appeared in AAPL, TSLA, and NKE, which had been weak since the beginning of the year, and are starting to rise.

Earnings announcements for Q1 2024 will begin in earnest this week. This week we will be watching GS, SCHW, BAC , AXP, ASML, TSM, and NFLX post earnings.

Now, let's review last week's market by checking the chart.

Table of Contents

Last Week in Review
Strategy of the Week

Last Week in Review

Market environment

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose +2.77%. The rate of increase has increased from the gradual uptrend that began at the beginning of the year.

The VIX rose +7.99%. It has large beards on the top and bottom and has yet to establish a direction as to which way it will go.

NASDAQ Analysis

Here is a monthly chart of the Nasdaq, which has stayed on without falling too far in April, with a return of -1.33%.

Here is the weekly chart of the NASDAQ. Last week it fell -0.61%, continuing the sideways trend that began at the end of February.

The NASDAQ high-low issue count has fallen significantly and is in a downtrend. There are no signs of a reversal yet.

Dow Analysis

This is a monthly chart of the Dow, which has rallied -4.53% in April, falling below the February low.

Here is the weekly chart of the Dow. Last week it fell -2.47%, the second consecutive week of significant declines, putting it in a short-term downtrend.

Analysis of the S&P 500

Here is the monthly chart of the S&P 500, which has fallen -2.36% in April. It has not yet reached the March low.

This is the weekly chart of the S&P 500. Last week it was down -1.60%; it has fallen for two consecutive weeks and is in a short-term downtrend.

Russell 2000 Analysis

Here is the monthly chart of the Russell 2000. a relatively large decline is underway, with April's return reaching -5.74%. it has fallen below the March lows.

Here is the weekly chart of the Russell 2000. Last week it fell -2.83%, the second consecutive week of significant declines, putting it in a short-term downtrend.

Commodity Futures Analysis

Crude oil was down -1.47%. It is falling with an upper whisker just above the uptrend channel.

天然ガスは-0.84%の下落で横ばいの動きとなっています。

Gold was up +1.22%. It has a large upper whisker and is moving like a climactic top.

Copper was up +0.53%; it fell just as it reached the January 2023 high, with a large upper whisker.

Sector Analysis

Reviewing sector-by-sector performance, all but telecommunication services fell last week. The financials, real estate, and health care sectors had particularly large declines.

Reviewing performance by industry sector, coal, consumer electronics, industrial metals, and copper rose. Significant declines were seen in real estate development, life insurance, pharmaceutical retailing, and computer hardware.

Trend of Individual Issues

Last week's market gainers were consumer electronics (AAPL), Internet content (GOOG), software (PANW), automobiles (TSLA), discount stores (COST), Internet retail (CPNG), pharmaceuticals (AZN), shoes (NKE), industrial metals (RIO), copper (SCCO) The following were the top 10 decliners. The rest of the market was down in a wide range of sectors, with only a few stocks rising. While the overall market was down, AAPL and TSLA, which have been weak since the beginning of the year, showed some upward movement.

Strategy of the Week

The first half of April began a period of adjustment after five consecutive months of gains, and the overall stock market continued to decline. Long-term interest rates and the VIX are trending upward, so there is still a possibility of further declines from this point on.

As of the end of last week, the stock market as a whole had not yet shown any signs of reversal, but AAPL, TSLA, and NKE, which had been weak since the beginning of the year, are beginning to rise, and there is a movement to start buying stocks that have become undervalued.

Metal materials such as gold, silver, and copper appear to be turning the tide a bit, as their rallies stopped late last week and they have been falling back and have an upward whisker.

The stock market is approaching short-term oversold levels, so it is becoming more likely that something will trigger a reversal to the upside. For now, I am taking a wait-and-see approach to swing trading until the overall market mood changes. I would like to wait until the stocks on my watch start to rise strongly.

Last week, the announcement of Q1 2024 financial results began, and this week we will focus on the results of GS, SCHW, BAC, ASML, TSM, and NFLX.

Swing Trade Monitoring Stocks

We have replaced the stocks on our watch list. AMAT, AVGO, CEG, DDOG, ETN, INFA, NFLX, VRT, and WING were added, as they have held their ground during last week's adjustment decline.