【米国株】2024-04-01週の振り返りと今週の戦略（監視銘柄）

In the U.S. market last week, long-term interest rates rose sharply and stock indexes fell across the board. On the other hand, rising futures prices for crude oil, gold, silver, copper, and other commodities drove the stock prices of related issues up strongly.

With the VIX up over 20% for the week for the first time in a long time, it appears increasingly likely that the stock indexes will adjust or move sideways for the foreseeable future.

This week, along with the CPI and PPI releases, the major banks will announce their 2024 Q1 earnings results. This week, we will be watching for interest rate movements after the CPI announcement and will be making short term trades on earnings issues.

Now, let's review last week's market by checking the chart.

Table of Contents

Last Week in Review
Strategy of the Week

Last Week in Review

Market environment

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose sharply to +4.70%, continuing its uptrend, with a clear break above 4.4% increasing the likelihood of further upside from here.

The VIX rose +23.23%, the first time in a while that it has exceeded 20%, and the first time since September 2023 that it has exceeded 20%.

NASDAQ Analysis

Here is the monthly chart of the NASDAQ, which is down -0.73% for the month after one week in April.

Here is the weekly chart of the NASDAQ. Last week it was down -0.73%; since March it has continued to trade sideways in a range between 17700 and 18400.

The NASDAQ high-low issue count has fallen into negative territory. If the index falls further from here this week and stalls in negative territory, there is a strong likelihood that the adjustment decline will continue.

Dow Analysis

Here is the monthly chart of the Dow, which shows that the current rate of return for April is -2.12%, a decline that cancels out the gains made in March.

Here is the weekly chart of the Dow. Last week it fell -2.12%. The decline was well below the previous week's candle and shows a bearish chart pattern similar to August and September of 2023.

Analysis of the S&P 500

This is a monthly chart of the S&P 500, which has a current rate of return of -0.77% for the month of April.

Here is the weekly chart of the S&P 500. It was down -0.77% last week. It gained back slightly on Friday and ended the day with a lower whisker.

Russell 2000 Analysis

This is a monthly chart of the Russell 2000. At this time, the April return is -2.72%, which is offsetting the March gain.

Here is the weekly chart of the Russell 2000. Last week it fell -2.72%. This is a big drop that cancels out the previous week's increase.

commodity futures

Crude oil is up a strong +4.53%, accelerating its rise above a moderate uptrend channel.

Natural gas moved a modest +1.25%.

Gold was up a very strong +4.78%. It continues its strong uptrend.

Copper had a strong gain of +5.71%, surpassing its April 2023 high. Like gold, it is in a strong uptrend.

Sector Analysis

Energy, telecom services, and materials rose last week, while real estate, healthcare, and defensives fell sharply

Reviewing performance by industry sector, silver was a very strong gainer. Other sectors that have seen overall strength include uranium, metal materials such as gold, aluminum, and copper, and petroleum-related industries. Retail-related sectors such as pharmaceutical retailing, department stores, apparel, and home improvement are falling

In terms of performance by market capitalization, only very small stocks have risen, while the rest have fallen. Among them, the performance of small-cap stocks is poor.

Trend of Individual Issues

Oil (XOM, SHEL, EOG, MPC), gold (NEM, GOLD), copper (FCX, SCCO), industrial machinery (GE, ETN), Internet content (META, SPOT), and public power (VST, NRG, CEG) rose last week. Significant declines were seen in semiconductors (AMD, INTC), pharmaceuticals (ABBV, AMGN, BMY), health insurance (UNH, CVS, HUM), automobiles (TSLA, TM), home improvement (HD, LOW), shoes (NKE), and apparel retail (TJX, ROST, LULU).

Strategy of the Week

With long-term interest rates rising, stock indexes generally weak and the VIX rising, the equity market is likely to remain on the downside this week.

If the CPI numbers to be released this week cause interest rates to rise further, we will be looking at a slightly longer adjustment. Conversely, if the CPI shows that inflation unexpectedly falls, there is still a possibility that interest rates will fall and stocks, especially high-tech stocks, will rise.

Most of our swing trade positions were temporarily sold during last Thursday's decline. This week, we will continue to monitor the timing of the breakout of stocks that are still sideways after strong rallies and enter the market when the opportunity arises.

As for long term holdings, further correction would be a good opportunity to buy more stocks; ABBV, UNH, HD, NKE, SBUX, etc. would be good to buy a little more.

Swing Trade Monitoring Stocks

This week we are switching stocks around a bit. We are adding CRWD and NOW, which held up during last week's decline without falling too far, and CCJ, DELL, NTRA, and TMDX, which showed strong moves higher during last week's overall market decline.