【米国株】2024-03-18週の振り返りと今週の戦略（監視銘柄）

The U.S. market had a week of declining interest rates and sharp gains in stock indexes last week due to Chairman Powell's press conference after the FOMC meeting, and it seems that buyers who had been holding back the previous week in anticipation of the FOMC meeting have all returned, and the forces behind the selling have also temporarily pulled out of the market.

On the other hand, some stocks have seen their share prices fall sharply after NKE, LULU, ACN, and others announced weaker-than-expected guidance figures in their earnings announcements. Although the current U.S. earnings figures are not bad, there seems to be a gradual increase in the number of companies that are expecting sluggish growth in the second half of this year.

We are now one week into March. Last week's strong rally has opened up the possibility of a fifth consecutive month of gains for the NASDAQ, the Dow, and the S&P 500. Although the market has continued to rally very strongly, looking back at past charts, it is rare for a rally to continue for six consecutive months, so we will continue to trade cautiously, assuming the possibility of an adjustment at some point.

Let's review last week's market by checking the chart.

Table of Contents

Last Week in Review
Strategy of the Week

Last Week in Review

Market environment

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell -2.51%, maintaining the gradual uptrend that has been in place since December 2023.

The VIX was down -9.5%, breaking below the gradual uptrend that had begun in December 2023. Once it fell to 12.40, it rebounded and rallied back up to 12.40, with a lower whisker.

NASDAQ Analysis

Here is the monthly chart of the NASDAQ. Last week's strong rally to +1.65% suggests that March could end on a positive note.

Here is the weekly chart of the NASDAQ. Last week was a strong gain of +2.85%; it has begun to rebound after a brief 2-week correction.

The NASDAQ high-low issue count is back in positive territory. We will see if it can maintain positive territory this week.

Dow Analysis

This is the monthly chart of the Dow. As with the NASDAQ, the rate of return was +1.17% in March.

Here is the weekly chart of the Dow. Last week it broke out of its recent 4-week range with a strong +1.86% gain.

Analysis of the S&P 500

This is the monthly chart of the S&P 500. Last week's strong rally has brought the March return to +2.71%.

This is a weekly chart of the S&P 500. The last two weeks have been directionless, but the price has powerfully broken above its range.

Russell 2000 Analysis

Here is a monthly chart of the Russell 2000, showing a March return of +0.58%. This is a somewhat weak move compared to other stock indices.

Here is the weekly chart of the Russell 2000. Last week it was up +1.58%. On a closing basis, it failed to exceed the previous week's high.

commodity futures

Crude oil was flat at -0.28% with no significant movement. It was sold off at the upper end of a moderate uptrend channel and ended with an upper whisker. In the short term, it looks like it will fall toward the 75 area once it is done.

Natural gas was up a modest +0.24%. The market continues to try to create a small double bottom-like pattern.

Gold.-0.07%Gold was flat at -0.07%. It once made a higher high and then fell and has a large upper whisker. Even though interest rates are falling, gold is also falling, which is an unusual move. It looks likely that the price will remain on the downside this week.

Copper had a relatively large drop of -2.84%. It fell to about 50% of the previous week's increase.

Sector Analysis

All sectors rose last week. Particularly strong gains were seen in telecommunication services.

Looking at performance by industry sector, utilities power, internet content, electronic components, and homebuilding rose strongly. Falling were shoes, broadcasting, and IT services.

Trend of Individual Issues

Strong gains last week were seen in semiconductors (NVDA, AVGO, MU, ARM), software (SNPS, UBER, CDNS), Internet content (GOOG, META), automotive (TM, TSLA, GM, F), home improvement (HD, LOW), asset management (GS, SCHW) and residential construction (DHI, LEN). ACN, NKE, and LULU, which had weak guidance in earnings, are down sharply.

Strategy of the Week

Last week, after passing the FOMC meeting and throughout the week, stock indices were up strongly across the board; after being dominated by sellers in the first half to mid-March, the buyers have once again revived and the market mood appears to have returned to bullish.

However, the week ended with a slight sell-off on Friday, and the week may begin with a sell-off.

This week, we will be entering the market for stocks we are monitoring that are breaking out of their recent multi-week declines or sideways ranges and rising.

Swing Trade Monitoring Stocks

Stocks on our watch list include GES and MU, which have seen strong moves following last week's earnings announcements. Other stocks on our watch list include HUBS and PEGA, which have been flat after strong post-earnings rallies, and ALSN, ANET, and NVDA, which have broken out of those highs.

Click here to see a chart of the stocks monitored.

Stock Screener - Charts ALSN,ANET,APP,AXON,CELH,COIN,DKNG,DXCM,ERJ,FROG,FRPT,GES,GPS,HUBS,IOT,MU,NET,NTNX,NVDA,OKTA,PAY,PCOR,PEGA,PLTR,SHAK,SPOT,SWAV,TOL,UBER,VITL ticker

Stock screener for investors and traders, financial visualizations.

The stocks we are focusing on this week for swing trading are AXON, DKNG, DXCM, FRPT, HUBS, and PEGA. For stocks that have already broken out of their highs, we are considering entering at the timing of a rebound from a push, and for stocks that are expected to break out of their highs, we are considering entering at the timing of a breakout.