【米国株】2024-03-11週の振り返りと今週の戦略（監視銘柄）

Last week in the U.S. market, interest rates rose above 5% for the first time in many years, and stock indexes fell, particularly in high-tech and small- and mid-cap stocks. The Nasdaq fell for two consecutive weeks for the first time since October 2023. The other indices also showed signs of weakness. There are also bearish signs for other stock indices.

However, so far not all sectors have sold off uniformly, and the impression is that sectors that are rising and those that are falling are rotating in and out of each other. Last week, copper- and oil-related stocks rose sharply, while coal, REITs, and growth stocks related to semiconductors and software fell sharply.

The stock market is about to enter a period of adjustment after a four-month strong rally that began in November 2023. The strong rally for four consecutive months that began in November 2023 has come to a halt and is about to enter a period of adjustment. The situation is slightly dominated by sellers, and there is a risk of a large decline at any moment. It is advisable to keep swing trade positions small and trade cautiously.

This week, the FOMC on March 20 will be held on March 20. We will see how interest rates and stock indexes react after Chairman Powell's press conference.

MU is the earnings report to watch this week. We will be watching the earnings results and guidance as they often have a significant impact on the price movements of semiconductor stocks.

Let's review last week's market by checking the chart.

Table of Contents

Last Week in Review

Last Week in Review

Market environment

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose sharply to +5.66%. The uptrend is confirmed to continue with firm lows.

The VIX fell -2.10%, continuing the gradual uptrend that began in December 2023.

NASDAQ Analysis

This is a monthly chart of the NASDAQ. The current March return is -1.17%. It is falling with an upper mustache.

Here is the weekly chart of the NASDAQ. Last week it fell -1.22%, its second consecutive weekly decline, the first time since October 2023 that it has fallen two weeks in a row.

The NASDAQ high-low number of issues has fallen into negative territory. When this indicator is in negative territory, it is good to observe market movements with caution.

Dow Analysis

This is the monthly chart of the Dow. The current March return is -0.67%.

Here is the weekly chart of the Dow. Last week it was flat at -0.10%. The chart looks somewhat bearish with relatively large upper whiskers.

Analysis of the S&P 500

This is a monthly chart of the S&P 500. It still barely maintains a positive monthly return.

Here is the weekly chart of the S&P 500. Last week it was flat at -0.20%; for the second week in a row it has sold off and pushed back up near 5196. The upward momentum appears to be weakening.

Russell 2000 Analysis

This is the monthly chart of the Russell 2000. At this time, the March return is down -0.63%.

Here is the weekly chart of the Russell 2000. Last week it was down -2.20%; it was bought at the 5 moving averages and closed with a lower whisker; since the beginning of 2024, after some decline, buyers have appeared and the market is moving back up.

Commodity Futures Analysis

Crude oil rose +4.10%. The rise in the price of crude oil was +4.10%. It has continued the uptrend that began in December 2023, although it has risen and fallen on a weekly basis.

Natural gas was down -8.31%. It appears to be on the verge of forming a double bottom.

Gold was down -1.10%, about to enter an adjustment period after three straight weeks of gains to new highs. Interest rates have started to rise and may remain flat or even decline until they start to fall again.

Here is a monthly chart of copper, which has broken out of its range over the past 10 months with a strong March gain of +7.21%. The next target is resistance near 4.20.

Sector Analysis

Energy, telecommunication services, and materials rose last week, while real estate, health care, information technology, and utilities fell.

By industry, copper is rising very strongly. Elsewhere, oil and gas refining, precious metals, silver, and agricultural products are up strongly, while coal, solar, REITs, and semiconductor equipment are down.

In terms of market capitalization, large-cap stocks were strong last week, while small-cap stocks were weak.

Trend of Individual Issues

Strong gains last week were seen in software (ORCL ), Internet content (GOOG), credit services (PYPL), regional banks (NU), online retail (PDD), copper (SCCO, FCX), and oil and gas refining (MPC, PSX, COP). Semiconductor (TSM, AVGO, AMD, ASML, LRCX), mid-sized software (ADBE, PLTR, NET), automotive (TSLA), and REITs (AMT, EQIX, PSA) are down significantly.

Strategy of the Week

Looking at the movement of the stock index, the strong four-month rise that began in November 2023 came to a halt in March, and the trend has been flat to slightly declining. At the moment, not all sectors are selling off at once, and there is a rotation between sectors that are rising and those that are falling. While sellers are gaining the upper hand, forces that are looking for buying opportunities are picking and choosing sectors as if they are fighting a guerrilla war.

Energy and copper were very strong last week as interest rates rose, while tech growth stocks were weak across the board as they were vulnerable to higher rates.

The FOMC meeting will be held this week, and we will be watching closely to see which way interest rates move after the Chairman's press conference. Depending on the movement of interest rates after the meeting, stocks that have been falling over the past two weeks may rebound, or they may fall even faster. However, small- and mid-cap high-tech growth stocks are approaching a slightly oversold state in the short term.

This week, I will be monitoring stocks that have held up through last week's correction without falling too far, looking for entry opportunities. I will keep my position size small and trade while keeping an eye on the market.

Stocks monitored for swing trades

We have added GCT to our watch list after it showed strong movement following last week's earnings announcement. We also added LULU, which is scheduled to report earnings this week. Other than that, there are no major replacements. This week, we will check the reaction of ERJ, STNE, and LULU after their earnings announcements and enter the market if they seem likely to rise. We are also keeping an eye on FRPT, which held up during last week's market without a major decline, and SHAK, which fell once but has rebounded.

Click here to see a chart of the stocks monitored.

Stock Screener - Charts AFRM,APP,AXON,CELH,COIN,CSGP,DKNG,DXCM,ERJ,FROG,FRPT,GCT,GPS,HOOD,IOT,LULU,NET,NTNX,OKTA,PAY,PCOR,PLTR,SHAK,SG,STNE,SPOT,SWAV,TOL,UBER,VITL ticker

Stock screener for investors and traders, financial visualizations.

The four stocks to watch this week are FRPT, LULU, SHAK, and STNE. We will consider entry if we see a strong rally above the yellow line.

Scheduled to close this week

This week, we will focus on the earnings results of ERJ, STNE, PDD, MU, and LULU. In particular, MU's earnings tend to have a significant impact on the trend of semiconductor stocks, so we will closely monitor its earnings results and guidance.