[U.S. Stocks] Review of Week 2024-02-26 and Strategy for the Week (Stocks to Watch)

Last week in the U.S. market, the PCE release of numbers close to consensus expectations resulted in lower interest rates and higher stock prices, with the NASDAQ, Dow, and S&P 500 ending February with their fourth consecutive monthly gain.

On the other hand, small-cap stocks have started to outperform since the second half of February, so we will be looking for trade opportunities with an eye on small-cap stocks that are about to start rising.

On the other hand.2Small-cap stocks have started to outperform since the second half of the month, so we will be looking for trade opportunities with an eye on small-cap stocks that are about to start rising.

Now, let's review last week's market by checking the chart.

Table of Contents

Last Week in Review
Strategy of the Week

Last Week in Review

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell -1.60%. This is the second consecutive weekly decline, albeit a small one.

The VIX was down -4.51%, breaking below the gradual uptrend that had begun at the end of 2023.

NASDAQ Analysis

Here is the monthly chart of the Nasdaq, which ended February on an up note and has risen for four consecutive months since November. Past charts show that the last time the market rose for more than 5 consecutive months was April-August 2018, September 2019-January 2020, April-August 2020, and March-July 2023, all of which saw the rise stop in the 6th month and a decline of about 8-15%. We do not know how long this rise will continue, but we will carefully observe market movements, assuming that there will be an adjustment after the fifth month.

Here is the weekly chart of the NASDAQ. It was up +2.08% last week. So far there is no sign of the rise stopping yet.

This is the number of high-low stocks on the NASDAQ. The market has rallied significantly in the past week and is maintaining its uptrend within positive territory.

Dow Analysis

Here is the monthly chart of the Dow. Like the Nasdaq, it ended February in positive territory for the fourth consecutive month.

Here is the weekly chart of the Dow. Last week it was flat at -0.16%.

Analysis of the S&P 500

This is a monthly chart of the S&P 500. Like the Nasdaq and Dow, this was the fourth consecutive month of gains; the increase since November 2023 has been over 20%.

Here is the weekly chart of the S&P 500. It was up +0.94% last week.

Russell 2000 Analysis

The February gain of +5.19% was the strongest gain among the stock indices.

Here is the weekly chart of the Russell 2000. Last week it was up +2.72%, which puts it above its December 2023 high.

Commodity Futures Analysis

Crude oil was up a strong +4.19%, maintaining the uptrend that began in December 2023.

Natural gas was the big gainer at +14.47%, its second straight week of gains.

Gold rose +2.26%, breaking strongly out of a short-term downtrend.

Copper was down a modest -0.48%. It has yet to break out of the 3.65-3.95 range.

Sector Analysis

Information technology, consumer staples, and real estate tended to be stronger last week, while telecommunication services were weaker. Defensives, utilities, and health care are also a bit weaker.

By industry, computer hardware, utilities (renewable energy and electric power), electronics, and semiconductor equipment are stronger, while textile manufacturing and health insurance are lower.

Performance by market capitalization shows very strong results for small-cap stocks.

Trend of Individual Issues

Last week, semiconductors (NVDA, AVGO, AMD ), semiconductor equipment (ASML, AMAT, KLAC), computer hardware (ANET, DELL), automobiles (TSLA, TM), real estate (AMT, DLR), building materials (CRH, MLM), electronics (VRT, ATKR) were strong, while GOOG, AAPL, UNH, KO, PFE, BRK-A and others were weak.

Strategy of the Week

In March, the rise that began in November 2023 enters its fifth month. In the past, when we checked the charts of stock indices, it was rare for the rise to continue for more than six months, and the rise often stopped at the fifth or sixth month and entered an adjustment phase. I believe that stocks and sectors that have risen sharply in the past are likely to fall once or go sideways in March as they consolidate their gains.

On the other hand, small-cap stocks have tended to outperform since the second half of February, and funds may continue to move from large-cap stocks to undervalued small-cap stocks, so we will be looking for trading opportunities with an eye on small-cap stocks that are about to start rising.

This week, we will focus on the 3/6 ADP employment report, the market reaction following the 3/8 employment report, and earnings announcements from retail (TGT, COST, ROST, ANF), semiconductor (AVGO, MRVL), and software (CRWD, MDB, IOT) stocks.

Swing Trade Monitoring Stocks

AXON, DUOL, OKTA, PSTG, and VERX were added based on price movements after last week's earnings announcements.

Click here to see a chart of the stocks monitored.

Stock Screener - Charts AMD,AMZN,APP,AZEK,ASPN,AXON,CELH,COIN,CRWD,DKNG,DUOL,ELF,FROG,HOOD,META,NET,NTNX,NVDA,OKTA,OSCR,PCOR,PLTR,PSTG PWR,SHAK,SPOT,TOL,UBER,VERX,VRT ticker

Stock screener for investors and traders, financial visualizations.

This week, we will enter ASPN, CRWD, NET, and OSCR, which have been adjusting after strong rallies, if we see a strong rally starting. CRWD is scheduled to announce earnings on 3/5, so we will pay attention to the movement after the announcement.